Separating the Signal From the Noise

What kind of role can a financial professional play for an investor?

The answer: an important one. While the value of such a relationship is hard to quantify, the intangible benefits may be long-lasting.

There are certain investors who turn to a financial professional with one goal in mind: the “alpha” objective of beating the market. But even Wall Street’s brightest money managers can come up short.

At some point, these investors realize that their financial professional has no control over what happens in the financial markets. They come to understand the real value of the relationship, which is about strategy, coaching, and understanding.

A financial professional can provide guidance about today’s financial climate, determine objectives, and assess progress toward those goals. Alone, an investor may find it difficult to do any of these tasks. Moreover, an investor may make self-defeating decisions. Today’s steady stream of information can prompt emotional behavior and may lead to blunders.

No investor is infallible.

Investors can feel that way during a great year when every decision seems to work out well. But overconfidence may set in, and the reality that the markets have challenging years can be forgotten.

A financial professional can help an investor commit to staying on track.

Through subtle or overt coaching, the investor can learn to take short-term market volatility in stride and focus on the long term. A strategy is put in place based on the investor’s goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.

As the investor-professional relationship unfolds, the investor begins to notice the intangible ways the professional provides value. The professional may help explain the subtleties of investment trends and how potential risk often relates to potential reward.

Perhaps most importantly, the professional helps the client get past the “noise” and “buzz” of the financial markets to see what is really important to their financial life.

The investor gains a new level of understanding, a context for all the investing and saving. The effort to build wealth and retire well is not merely focused on success but also significance.

Retiring Wild: National Parks and You

For many older adults, finding time to experience nature can be one of the greatest pleasures in retirement. And what better place to take in America’s splendor than one of our over 400 National Park Service sites? For over a century, generations of retirees have explored these stunning landscapes, marveled at the diverse wildlife, and discovered the physical benefits of a retirement spent in the great outdoors. But recent research suggests that the mental benefits could be even more important for retirees. Read on to learn more.¹

The Cortisol Connection

Have you ever had a stressful day? One that left you tired and irritable? Those feelings are most likely caused by the stress hormone, cortisol. Cortisol serves an essential purpose in the human body of helping to regulate your mood, motivation, and fear. However, when someone experiences sustained stress, their elevated levels of cortisol may greatly increase their risk of heart disease, depression, and even negatively impact their memory. Luckily, multiple studies show that connecting with nature for at least 20 minutes each day may be correlated to significantly lower cortisol levels. But the benefits don’t stop after 20 minutes. In fact, longer durations spent in a natural environment may further enhance feelings of peace and wellbeing as well as increased mental performance.^2,3

A Thrifty Option

The American National Park system is considered by some to be one of the healthiest and financially smart ways to vacation in retirement. After all, of the 417 current National Park Sites, roughly 300 allow free admission. For those who want access to everything the National Park Service (NPS) offers, the Lifetime Senior Pass ($80) or the Annual Senior Pass ($20) are both a steal. Regardless of which you purchase, remember that:^4,5

• The Senior Pass may provide a 50 percent discount on some amenity fees, such as those related to camping, swimming, and specialized interpretive services.
• The Senior Pass generally does NOT cover or reduce special recreation permit fees or fees charged by concessioners.
• There may be a service fee depending on how you purchase your pass. For more details, including the most recent ticket prices, visit the National Park Service website before planning your next trip.

A Prescription for Nature

Even though locations like Yellowstone, Yosemite, and Zion are the most-popular destinations for retirees, many communities benefit from smaller parks and nature preserves as well. For those who haven’t hiked or camped much, these local areas can be a great way to get started. Even those with more than a few years of national park experience stand to benefit, both physically and mentally, from visiting one of their local wildlife areas. So, before you pack your bags and load up the camper, do yourself a favor and look into what your home offers. You may discover that one of the best ways to stay happy, healthy, and sharp is closer than you think.

Managing Money as a Couple

When you marry or simply share a household with someone, your life changes—and your approach to managing your money may change as well. The good news is it’s usually not so difficult.

At some point, you will have to ask yourselves some money questions—questions that pertain not only to your shared finances but also to your individual finances. Waiting too long to ask (or answer) those questions might have some consequences.

First off, how do you propose setting priorities? One of your first priorities should be simply setting aside money that may help you build an emergency fund. But there are other questions to ask. Should you open joint accounts? How should you title assets that are owned by both of you?

How much will you spend & save? Budgeting can help you arrive at your answer. A simple budget, an elaborate budget, or any attempt at a budget can prove more informative than you realize. A thorough, line-item budget may seem a little over the top, but what you learn from it may be truly eye-opening.

How often will you check up on your financial progress? When finances affect two people rather than one, statements can become more important. Checking in on these details once a month (or at least once a quarter) may keep you both informed, so that neither one of you have misconceptions about household finances or assets. Arguments can be avoided when money misunderstandings are resolved through check ups.

What degree of independence do you want to maintain? Do you want to keep some money separate? Some spouses need individual financial “space” of their own. There is nothing wrong with this approach.

Can you be businesslike about your finances? Spouses who are inattentive or nonchalant about financial matters may encounter more financial trouble than they anticipate. So watch where your money goes, and think about ways to pay yourself first. Set shared short-term, medium-term, and long-term objectives.

Communication is key to all this. Watching your progress together may well have benefits beyond the financial, so a regular conversation should be a goal.

Is a Variable Annuity Right for Me?

For the casual observer, it sometimes seems that variable annuities are either “terrible” or “wonderful.”

Commentators in the financial media seem to occupy a polarity of opinions we might see in politics. What gets lost when these commentators collide is “the individual.” Unfortunately, the discussion is rarely centered on whether a variable annuity is relevant and useful to you and your set of needs.

Before considering investing in a variable annuity, you may want to make sure that you are exhausting the contribution limits of your 401(k), IRA, or other qualified retirement plan.

Variable annuities are sold by prospectus, which contains detailed information about investment objectives and risks, as well as charges and expenses. You are encouraged to read the prospectus carefully before you invest or send money to buy a variable annuity contract. The prospectus is available from the insurance company or from your financial professional. Variable annuity subaccounts will fluctuate in value based on market conditions, and may be worth more or less than the original amount invested if the annuity is surrendered.

At the end of the day, however, variable annuities are really a value judgment.

Do you value the guarantees and predictable income that annuities can provide?

Are the fees charged worth the price of mitigating the risk fluctuating markets can have on your financial security in retirement?

Only you can be the judge of what constitutes value to you. Leave the punditry on variable annuities to others and focus on whether they make sense for you.

The guarantees of an annuity contract depend on the issuing company’s claims-paying ability. Remember variable annuities have contract limitations, fees, and charges, including account and administrative fees, underlying investment management fees, mortality and expense fees, and charges for optional benefits.

Most annuities have surrender fees that are usually highest if you take out the money in the initial years of the annuity contact. Withdrawals and income payments are taxed as ordinary income. If a withdrawal is made prior to age 59½, a 10% federal income tax penalty may apply (unless an exception applies). Annuities are not guaranteed by the FDIC or any other government agency.

Do Our Biases Affect Our Financial Choices?

Investors are routinely warned about allowing their emotions to influence their decisions. However, they are not often cautioned about their preconceptions and biases that may color their financial choices.

In a battle between the facts & biases, our biases may win. If we acknowledge this tendency, we may be able to avoid some unexamined choices when it comes to personal finance. It may actually “pay” to recognize blind spots and biases with investing. Here are some common examples of bias creeping into our financial lives.

Letting emotions run the show.

How many investment decisions do we make that have a predictable outcome? Hardly any. In retrospect, it is all too easy to prize the gain from a decision over the wisdom of the decision and to, therefore, believe that the findings with the best outcomes were the best decisions (not necessarily true). Put some distance between your impulse to make a change and the action you want to take to help get some perspective on how your emotions affect your investment decisions.¹

Valuing facts we “know” & “see” more than “abstract” facts.

Information that seems abstract may seem less valid or valuable than information related to personal experience. This is true when we consider different types of investments, the state of the markets, and the economy’s health.¹

Valuing the latest information most.

The latest news is often more valuable than old news in the investment world. But when the latest news is consistently good (or consistently bad), memories of previous market climate(s) may become too distant. If we are not careful, our minds may subconsciously dismiss the eventual emergence of the next market cycle.¹

Being overconfident.

The more experienced we are at investing, the more confidence we have about our investment choices. When the market is going up, and a clear majority of our investment choices work out well, this reinforces our confidence, sometimes to a point where we may start to feel we can do little wrong, thanks to the state of the market, our investing acumen, or both. This can be dangerous.²

The herd mentality.

You know how this goes: if everyone is doing something, they must be doing it for sound and logical reasons. The herd mentality leads some investors to buy high (and sell low). It can also promote panic selling. The advent of social media hasn’t helped with this idea. Above all, it encourages market timing, and when investors try to time the market, it can influence their overall performance.³

Sometimes, asking ourselves what our certainty is based on and reflecting on ourselves can be helpful and informative. Examining our preconceptions may help us as we invest.

The Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting Tool

Does waiting 30 days for a government report seem a bit unreasonable? After all, we live in a world of instant messages and real-time quotes. Why should we wait a whole month between updates on the Consumer Price Index to see what’s going on with inflation?

Well, you don’t. If you’re an economics geek like me, here’s a secret tool you may not know. If economics is not your thing, know that I’m keeping close tabs on this stuff.

The Cleveland Fed has a tool called Inflation Nowcasting, which provides daily updates on inflation. Much like the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting model, it provides a real-time snapshot of gross domestic product.

For July, the Inflation Nowcasting forecasts that prices will rise 0.27% from a month earlier. That would be the smallest month-over-month gain since January 2021. For August, it’s showing an increase of 0.32%. How will the financial markets react if inflation starts to trend lower?

It’s important to point out that forecasting tools are based on assumptions and subject to revision without notice. In some instances, they may not materialize at all.

Real-time reports are nothing new, but it’s great to see that the Fed is starting to get more instant updates on the economy. And it’s information that’s available to all of us. You have to know where to look.

Managing the Risk of Outliving Your Money

“What is your greatest retirement fear?”

If you ask some pre-retirees this question, “outliving my money” may be one of the top answers. In fact, 42% of workers say they fear outliving their savings and investments.¹

Retirees face greater “longevity risk” today.

The Census Bureau says that Americans typically retire around age 63 for women and 65 for men. Social Security projects that today’s 63-year-olds will live into their mid-eighties, on average. This is a mean life expectancy, so while some of these seniors may pass away earlier, others may live past 90 or 100.^2,3

If your retirement lasts 20, 30, or even 40 years, how well do you think your retirement savings will hold up? What financial steps could you take in your retirement to try and prevent those savings from eroding? As you think ahead, consider the following possibilities and realities.

How will Social Security work in the future?

For decades, Social Security took in more dollars per year than it paid out. That ongoing surplus – also known as the Social Security Trust Fund – may face funding challenges as early as 2034. Congress may act to address this financing issue before then, but the worry is that future retirees could get slightly less back from Social Security than they put in. It’s critical that pre-retirees estimate the amount of Social Security benefits they are expected to generate in the future.⁴

Preparing for out-of-pocket health care costs.

You can enroll in Medicare at age 65, but how do you handle the premiums for private health insurance if you retire before then? Striving to work until you are eligible for Medicare makes economic sense and so does setting aside money to pay for health care costs. A healthy couple retiring at age 65 can expect to pay nearly $208,000 in lifetime out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, even if they have additional coverage such as Medicare Part D, Medigap, and dental insurance.⁵

Luck is not a plan, and hope is not a strategy.

Those who are retiring unaware of these factors may risk outliving their money. Creating a strategy may help you better prepare for retirement.

Debt Stress

The average American owes $52,940 in debt. Of that $52,940, $36,730 is from mortgage debt, $5,730 is from student loans, and $5,000 is from auto loans. Little wonder that money worries can be a major cause of stress.¹

The Link Between Stress and Health

Humans have an innate response called “flight or fight.” It is nature’s way of launching our bodies into action; consider the physical responses we feel during moments of stress—faster heartbeat, accelerated breathing, tightening of muscles, and increase in sweating.

These are response mechanisms that prepared our ancestors to run from, or confront, a danger on the savanna. But they can be less useful in more modern times.

In the short term, stress can manifest itself in physical symptoms, such as headaches, fatigue, difficulty sleeping or concentrating, an upset stomach, and general irritability.

These brief episodes of stress usually do not cause lasting harm to personal health.

However, debt—and the stress it causes—is often a persistent problem. If your stress system stays activated over longer periods of time, it can lead to serious health problems, such as weight gain, fatigue, anxiety, depression, headaches, and sleep problems.²

Managing Stress and Debt

If you are experiencing debt-related stress, you should consider attacking the root of the problem. Generally, it takes time to work down debt, but that doesn’t mean you can’t manage the stress during the interim period.³

Developing a strategy to eliminate your debt is the first step to lowering stress, since the sense of control that a strategy gives you might furnish you with hope and optimism.

It’s also important that you keep your debt worries in perspective. Remind yourself that debt may not permanently ruin your life. Writing in a journal can be helpful as an outlet to the worried thoughts that can cycle endlessly through your mind. Seek social support—knowing that family and friends are in your corner can be a great source of strength.

Finally, find time for laughter and extending small kindnesses—each unleashes wonderfully positive chemical reactions that are good for the soul and the body.

Unpacking the Summer Economy

In the financial world, some weeks are more important than others, and we just lived through a big one. Let’s unpack each of the four key stats:

The Fed. As expected, the Fed bumped up short-term rates again at its July meeting. But the markets breathed a sigh of relief in reaction. Investors believe the Fed is getting a handle on inflation, which may mean slower rate increases.

Inflation. It feels like inflation is trending lower – check out gasoline prices. But the Fed’s key inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures index, remained stubbornly high in June. Result? We’re still getting mixed signals.

GDP. The latest report showed a second straight quarterly contraction. Two quarters of negative growth would have been a recession by definition not long ago. Economists now look at more factors, such as jobs and hiring, before labeling an economy.

Company reports. They have been fantastic, with many companies checking in with better-than-expected results. In its July 29 update, FactSet reported that 73% of S&P 500 companies were surprised with earnings, and 66% were astonished by sales.

Enjoy the final weeks of summer. We’ll keep an eye on the markets.

A Penny Saved is Two Pennies Earned

The famous saying from Poor Richard’s Almanack is frequently misquoted. It was published by founder Benjamin Franklin in 1737: “A penny saved is two pence clear.” Finding ways to manage expenses is one of the cornerstones of a sound financial strategy.

Here are some simple and inexpensive energy-saving tips that may help you save money.

Audit First..

To better understand where opportunities may exist for improving energy efficiency, consider an energy audit. Perform one yourself by purchasing a home energy monitor, which tracks your energy use, and a handheld air leak detector to identify windows, doors and other areas of the home that are drafty.

Also, your local power utility may offer in-home energy audits or related services that can help identify remediation opportunities.

..Then Act

Consider these do-it-yourself ideas that may offer immediate savings at very little cost.

• Install a programmable thermostat to automatically lower the heat or air conditioning because—let’s face it—you forget to do it.
• Devices that offer “instant on,” or continuous display (e.g., TV, cable box and recharger) use energy non-stop. Consider a power strip to reduce their electrical use by shutting off the power strip at bedtime.
• Plug up the air leaks through weather stripping or caulking; install door sweeps to block drafts. Close the fireplace damper when not in use.
• Be sure to have your heating system serviced to ensure maximum efficiency.
• Install a water heater blanket and turn it down to 120 degrees; not only is a higher temperature wasteful, but a lower temperature is a safety precaution for younger children. Lower it to a minimum temperature when you leave for vacation.

Honk If You Like to Save Money

For many, the cost of running their automobile(s) can be higher than their home. Here are ways to save:

• Tune up your car.
• Check your tires for proper inflation.
• Drive sensibly by eliminating excessive idling, aggressive driving, and observing the speed limit.
• Eliminate weight—empty that trunk!