Fed Rescues September

A funny thing happened in the investment markets the other day. September was living up to its reputation as a volatile month, but then the Federal Reserve came to the rescue.

The Fed concluded its Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, September 22. It announced that it might start tapering its monthly bond purchases soon, perhaps as early as November, and could raise interest rates sometime next year.¹

Before the Fed news, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index was down nearly 4% for the month.²

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that bond purchases may end entirely by the middle of 2022. The support for hiking interest rates also increased, with half of the 18 Fed officials expecting interest rates to be higher by the close of next year, up from just seven who thought similarly in June.¹

The markets embraced the update, and over the next three days, the S&P 500 rose 2.3%.²

The Fed also raised its inflation forecast from 3% to 3.7%, which caught some by surprise. The Fed news on inflation came at the same time several large companies warned about higher prices.^1,3

Market volatility can test the mettle of even the most patient investor, so please remember we’re here when your patience gets tested.

Are Your Taxes Going to Change?

Most likely, you’ve heard what’s brewing in Washington, D.C., called by one of these names.

The Build Back Better Act. Or the $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation bill. Or the Jobs and Economic Recovery Plan for Working Families.¹

Regardless of what name you’ve heard, one fact is clear: It likely to be months before any action is taken. When bills are being worked on—especially one that’s this size—it’s a good time to take a quick Civics refresher. Right now, the bill is “in committee” with both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The committees are filing in the policy details and the exact financial figures, which can be a long process.²

It will then be up to the House and Senate to vote on an identical version of a final bill—if both can agree to a final version.²

Right now, it would be hasty to make any portfolio changes based on what’s being discussed and debated. An ambitious investor would have to guess at what policies will be in the final bill, estimate the financial impact, and determine what portfolio changes should be made. That’s a tall order.

So as difficult as it may be, the best approach is to wait-and-see. We work with professionals who are watching every twist and turn. If something starts to take shape, we will evaluate the impact.

We also understand that some of you may have concerns about whether your taxes are going to change. If that’s the case, please reach out. We would welcome the chance to speak with you.

The September Effect

The stock market notched its 7th straight month of gains in August, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has set 53 new highs so far in 2021.¹

During August, stocks rallied as investors looked past the increased number of COVID-19 Delta variant cases and barely reacted when the Federal Reserve said it might begin tapering its monthly bond purchases by year-end.

But it’s a new month, and you should expect to see an article or two about what’s called the “September Effect.” September is when many professional investors end their fiscal year, which can lead to some overall market weakness.²

When I see articles about the September Effect, I’m reminded of my favorite stock market quote by Mark Twain.³

“October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” There’s always going to be some market theory, opinion, or model that suggests we’re in “this cycle” or “that trend.” Over the years, we’ve found that the best strategy is to ignore the noise and focus on your investing
goals.

Social Security Benefits May Be Cut by 2034

The economic impact of COVID-19 has been felt from coast to coast. And, unfortunately for many pre-retirees, it could potentially impact Social Security benefits as well.

A new report indicates that if Congress doesn’t take action to address funding, benefits will be cut to 78 percent by 2034. Social Security’s longterm funding has been a concern for some time now, but it appears that COVID-19 has shortened the timeline.¹

In December 2020, the average monthly benefit for a retired individual receiving Social Security was $1,544. Even with benefits at full funding, you may not be able to meet your financial needs in retirement on Social Security alone. For those who have the opportunity to plan and prepare,
Social Security doesn’t have to be their only source of retirement income. There are a few options to consider when preparing to supplement the difference between what you earn in Social Security benefits and what you need to thrive in retirement.²

Individual Retirement Accounts – There are two types of Individual Retirement Accounts, or IRAs, to choose from— traditional IRAs and Roth IRAs. If you’ve had these accounts set up for some time and made contributions regularly, then the potential growth of these accounts may make up for Social Security reductions.^3,4

Defined Contribution Plans – If your employer offers a defined contribution plan, such as a 401(k), 403(b), or 457 plan, the accumulated income in these accounts could supplement Social Security, especially if this amount has had time to grow.

Defined Benefit Plans – Though not as common as they used to be, pensions are a type of defined benefit plan. Benefits established by an employer take into account work history and salary to determine benefits.

Personal Savings – Your personal savings could be used to help make up the difference in Social Security benefits. If your savings may become your main source of Social Security supplementation, then consider consulting a financial advisor who can help you determine a long-term, more sustainable solution.

Continued Employment – Unfortunately for some retirees and pre-retirees, if Social Security does not help make ends meet, and the above options are not available or don’t provide enough benefits, then it may be time to consider postponing your retirement. The good news, though, is that working while collecting Social Security could potentially increase your benefit amount.⁵