Companies Winning Despite Sour Economy

Sometimes, it’s a good idea to get a second opinion.

And this may be one of those times.

Government reports are telling a rather bleak story about the economy. The headlines talk about high inflation, rising interest rates, and a possible recession.

But corporations are telling a more upbeat, optimistic story about business conditions.

Aside from a few high-profile misses, most companies have been checking in with solid second-quarter reports in the past few weeks.Through July 22, FactSet reported that 68% of S&P 500 companies reported positive earnings surprises, and 65% reported a positive revenue surprise.

I’m always encouraged about the economy whenever I see businesses enjoying success. While macroeconomic trends are still a steady headwind, corporate America seems to be sailing straight and true.

Preparing for the Expected

As Teddy Roosevelt once observed, “Old age is like everything else. To make a success of it, you’ve got to start young.”

The challenges seniors have met throughout their lives have made them wiser and stronger, preparing them for the unique challenges that come with aging.

As we age, the potential for cognitive decline increases, ranging from simple forgetfulness to dementia. Long-term illness can sap time and energy from tending to your financial affairs in retirement. Even a decline in vision may make it harder to manage your financial affairs.

Fortunately, you can look ahead to help protect yourself and your family against the financial consequences of deteriorating health, and in many cases, insurance may play an important role.

Let’s examine some of the ways you can employ insurance to help protect your financial health.

Healthcare Costs

For some, healthcare costs represent a larger share of their budget as the years pass.

Recognizing this, you may want to consider Medigap insurance to cover the expenses that Medicare does not, which can add up quickly. You also might want to consider some form of extended-care insurance, which can be structured to pay for nursing home and home healthcare services—two services that Medicare doesn’t cover.

Managing Your Wealth

The involvement you have with managing your investments may change as you age. For many seniors, that sort of day-to-day responsibility is unattractive and even untenable.

If that’s the case, you may wish to consider what role annuities can play. Annuities can be structured to pay you income for as long as you live, relieving you of the concern of outliving your retirement money. Certain annuities even offer extended-care benefits, which allow you to address two concerns with one decision.¹

Transferring Your Estate

If you’re like many seniors, you have a strong desire to leave something to your children, grandchildren, and perhaps a favorite charity. Through the use of life insurance, you can pursue these objectives. For example, life insurance can be used to create an estate or to equalize an estate transfer among your heirs.²

Insurance will never be able to prevent the health issues that come inexorably with age, but it can be used to mitigate their potential financial consequences.

Balmy Business Books for a Sweltering Summer

There’s nothing quite like the pleasure of a good book. And with temperatures rising nearly everywhere, now is a great time to grab a frosty beverage, settle into your comfiest chair, and lose yourself in a good story.

Here’s what some of America’s sharpest business minds have enjoyed over the last year:

Indra Nooyi, former CEO of PepsiCo. — suggests “Out of Many,
One” by George W. Bush for those interested in a deeply heartfelt collection of portraits and immigration stories by George W. Bush.

Rosalind “Roz” Brewer, CEO Walgreens Boots Alliance — enjoyed “The Heart of Business: Leadership Principles for the Next Era of Capitalism” by Hubery Joly for exploring the management philosophy that transformed one of America’s best-known electronics vendors, Best Buy.

Robert Iger, former CEO of the Walt Disney Company — connected with “Max Perkins: Editor of Genius” by A. Scott Berg. Iger found Perkins’ extraordinary eye for fledgling talent impressive considering that it led to the rise of several of the 20th century’s literary giants, including F. Scott Fitzgerald, Ernest Hemingway, and Thomas Wolfe.

If you give one of the above a read, want to chat, or have any great summer reading suggestions, let us know. We’re only a phone call or email away.

Retirement Is a Beginning

How do you know you are psychologically ready to retire? As a start, ask yourself four questions.

One, is your work meaningful?

If it is emotionally and psychologically fulfilling, if it gives you a strong sense of purpose and identity, then there may be a voice inside your head telling you not to retire yet. You may want to listen to it.

It can be tempting to see retirement as a “finish line”: no more long workdays, long commutes, or stressful deadlines. But it is really a starting line: the start of a new phase of life. Ideally, you cross the “finish line” knowing what comes next, what will be important to you in the future.

Two, do you value work or leisure more at this point in your life?

If the answer is leisure, score one for retirement. If the answer is work, maybe you need a new job or a new way of working rather than an exit from your company or your profession.

An old saying says that retirement feels like “six Saturdays and a Sunday.” Fantastic, right? It is, as long you don’t miss Monday through Friday. Some people really enjoy their careers; you may be one of them.

Three, where do your friends come from?

If very little of your social life involves the people you work with, then score another point for retirement. If your friends are mainly your coworkers, those friendships may be tested if you retire.

Creating a financial strategy for retirement is important. But there are also other important factors, including your physical health, your mental health, your relationships with family and friends, your travels and adventures, and your outlets to express your creativity. Building a life away from work can be a plus.

Four, what do you think your retirement will be like?

If you think it will be spectacularly different from your current life, ask yourself if your expectations are realistic. If after further consideration they seem unrealistic, you may want to keep working for a while until you are in a better financial position to try and realize them or until your expectations shift.

Ideally, you retire when you are financially, emotionally, and psychologically ready. Why you are retiring is as important as when you choose to retire. When you are motivated to retire, you see retirement as a beginning rather than an end.

Inflation, Interest Rates, & Indiana Jones

Stop me if you heard this already—roughly half the population wasn’t alive last time inflation was at this level.

It’s true. According to IMDb.com, Raiders of the Lost Ark was the #1 movie at the box office the last time prices were rising at a rate of 9% a year.

In economic circles, the most widely followed inflation barometer, the Consumer Price Index, is considered a lag indicator, meaning that by the time it’s reported, prices likely have changed. The question is, are prices continuing to trend higher or are they moving lower?

The Fed will attempt to answer that question at its July meeting, when it makes a decision about short-term interest rates. There’s speculation rates could jump as much as 1% to curb inflation. But the Fed has to watch for a backfire, as a 1% move may send a desperate signal to the financial markets.

High inflation is a pain in the wallet, but nothing lasts forever. In the meantime, try not to watch the markets too closely, and go to the movies this summer. Who knows? We might be watching history in the making.

Understanding Extended Care

Addressing the potential risks of extended term care expenses may be one of the biggest financial challenges for individuals who are developing a retirement strategy.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 70% of people over age 65 can expect to need extended care services at some point in their lives. So understanding the various types of extended care services – and what those services may cost – is critical as you consider your retirement approach.¹ 

What Is Extended Care?

Extended care is not a single activity. It refers to a variety of medical and non–medical services needed by those who have a chronic illness or disability – most commonly associated with aging.

Extended care can include everything from assistance with activities of daily living – help dressing, bathing, using the bathroom, or even driving to the store – to more intensive therapeutic and medical care requiring the services of skilled medical personnel.

Extended care may be provided at home, at a community center, in an assisted living facility, or in a skilled nursing home. And extended care is not exclusively for the elderly; it is possible to need extended care at any age.

How Much Does Extended Care Cost?

Extended care costs vary state by state and region by region. The 2020 national average for care in a skilled care facility (single occupancy in a nursing home) was $105,850 a year. The national average for care in an assisted living center (single occupancy) was $51,600 a year. Home health aides cost a median $24 per hour, but that rate may increase when a licensed nurse is required.²

What Are the Payment Choices?

Often, extended care is provided by family and friends. Providing care can be a burden, however, and the need for assistance tends to increase with age.³

Individuals who would rather not burden their family and friends have two main choices for covering the cost of extended care: they can choose to self-insure or they can purchase extended care insurance.

Many self-insure by default – simply because they haven’t made other arrangements. Those who self-insure may depend on personal savings and investments to fund any extended care needs. The other approach is to consider purchasing extended care insurance, which can cover all levels of care, from skilled care to custodial care to in-home assistance.

When it comes to addressing your extended care needs, many look to select a strategy that may help them protect assets, preserve dignity, and maintain independence. If those concepts are important to you, consider your approach for extended care.

Euro/Dollar Parity & Summer Travel

Summer travel is picking up this year. If you’re headed to Europe, you may notice that you get more bang for your buck.

Why is that?

For the first time in almost 20 years, the U.S. dollar and the euro have reached parity. Souvenirs will be cheaper for Americans, but Europeans coming this direction may feel the pinch of more expensive goods and services.

The U.S. dollar has strengthened against the euro in part because of differences in monetary policy. The U.S. has been raising rates to slow inflation, while the European Central Bank (ECB) has been hesitant for fear of slowing economic growth. However, with the ECB expected to raise short-term rates this month for the first time in over a decade, euro/dollar parity may be short-lived.

If there’s anything about your investment strategy that you’d like to review, let’s talk. And if you’re headed to Europe, send me a vacation photo!

Navigating Retirement Pitfalls

Much is written about the classic financial mistakes that plague start-ups, family businesses, corporations, and charities. Some classic financial missteps have been known to plague retirees, too.

Calling them “missteps” may be a bit harsh, as not all of them represent errors in judgment. Either way, becoming aware of these potential pitfalls may help you to avoid falling into them in the future.

Managing Social Security. Social Security benefits are structured to rise about 8% for every year you delay receiving them after your full retirement age. Is waiting a few years to apply for benefits an idea you might consider? Filing for your monthly benefits before you reach your full retirement age can mean comparatively smaller monthly payments.¹

Managing medical costs. One report estimates that a healthy couple retiring at age 65 can expect nearly $208,000 in out-of-pocket medical expenses during the course of their retirement, even with additional coverage such as Medicare Part D, Medigap, and dental insurance. Having a strategy can help you be better prepared for medical costs.²

Understanding longevity. Actuaries at the Social Security Administration project that around a third of today’s 65-year-olds will live to age 90, with about one in seven living 95 years or longer. The prospect of a 20- or 30-year retirement is not only reasonable, but it should be expected.³

Managing withdrawals. You may have heard of the “4% rule,” a guideline stating that you should take out only about 4% of your retirement savings annually. Each person’s situation is unique but having some guidelines can help you prepare.

Managing taxes. Some people enter retirement with investments in both taxable and tax-advantaged accounts. Which accounts should you draw money from first? To answer the question, a qualified financial professional would need to review your financial situation so they can better understand your goals and risk tolerance.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not a replacement for real-life advice, so make sure to consult your tax, legal, and accounting professionals before modifying your investment strategy for tax considerations.

Managing other costs, like college. There is no “financial aid” program for retirement. There are no “retirement loans.” A financial professional can help you review your anticipated income and costs before you commit to a long-term strategy, and help you make a balanced decision between retirement and helping with the cost of college for your children or grandchildren.

What Story Is the Price to Earnings Ratio Telling?

If you’re trying to get an inside edge on Wall Street, you’re probably paying attention to an array of stats and measurements. But there’s one indicator you might be overlooking.

I’m talking about the price-to-earnings ratio. P/E ratio divides a company’s stock price by its earnings per share. You also can get a P/E ratio for a stock market index, like the Standard & Poor’s 500.

On July 8, the predicted or “future” 12 month P/E ratio of the S&P 500 was 16.3, coming in below the five-year average of 18.6 but above the 20- year average of 15.5.¹

Does this mean stocks are undervalued? Perhaps based on the five-year average, but not so much according to the 20-year stat. Potato, potahto. One thing is clear: the P/E ratio tells us that stocks were more expensive late last year than they are today.

One of my favorite sayings is, “Time in the market beats timing the market.” Keep following your established strategy and try not to overthink current events.

How Retirement Spending Changes With Time

New retirees sometimes worry that they are spending too much, too soon. Should they scale back? Are they at risk of outliving their money? This concern may be legitimate. Some households “live it up” and spend more than they anticipate as retirement starts to unfold. In 10 or 20 years, though, they may not spend nearly as much.

By The Numbers

The initial stage of retirement can be expensive. The Bureau of Labor Statistics figures show average spending of $60,076 per year for households headed by pre-retirees, Americans age 55-64. That figure drops to $45,221 for households headed by people age 65 and older.¹

When retirees are well into their 70s, spending often decreases. The Government Accountability Office data shows that people age 75-79 spend 41% less on average than people in their peak spending years (which usually occur in the late 40s).

Spending Pattern

Some suggest that retirement spending is best depicted by a U-shaped graph — It rises, then falls, then increases quickly due to medical expenses.

But in a 2017 study, the investment firm BlackRock found that retiree spending declined very slightly over time. Also, medical expenses only spiked for a small percentage of retirees in the last two years of their lives.²

What’s the best course for you? Your spending pattern will depend on your personal choices as you enter retirement. A carefully designed strategy can help you be prepared and enjoy your retirement years.