Powell News Kicks Off Volatile Season?

The holiday season is often a quiet, positive time for the financial markets. The phrase “Santa Claus Rally” was coined in the early 1970s to reflect the stock market’s upward bias during the November-January stretch.¹

But this year, the markets might face some crosswinds as we travel through the holidays. The stock market initially reacted well to news that President Biden will nominate Jerome Powell to lead the Federal Reserve for a second term. But trading became choppy as the session continued.²

Next up, the markets may react to an active December legislative calendar. Between today and New Year, Congress is preparing to work on the federal budget, the debt ceiling, and the Build Back Better plan.

Economic news also may influence trading in the weeks ahead. For example, the next reading on inflation (Consumer Price Index) releases on Friday, December 10.³

Last, COVID-19 continues to be unpredictable. Many states have seen an uptick in infections in recent weeks, and a few nations have adopted more aggressive lockdowns to help manage the most recent wave.⁴

Markets tend to be comfortable with some uncertainty, believing that time will resolve the issues. But this year, it might be best to prepare for Santa’s sleigh to hit a few speed bumps along the way.

Is Inflation Peaking?

You see it in prices at the grocery store and the gas station. You feel it in your monthly budget. So why don’t the financial markets seem too concerned about inflation?

Remember, financial markets are considered “discounting mechanisms,” meaning they are looking six- to nine-months into the future. And by June 2022, the financial markets expect that inflation will be lower than today.¹

One lesser-known indicator helps support that forecast is called the Baltic Dry Index. It measures the cost of transporting raw materials, such as coal and steel. The index has been trending lower for several weeks, which in the past has suggested that prices may be more manageable in the months ahead.²

No indicator is fool-proof. That’s why the Baltic Dry Index is just one of the many indicators that our professionals follow when watching inflation. They also keep a close eye on the Fed, which is responsible for controlling inflation.³

With the economy improving, the Federal Reserve has indicated it will be tapering bond purchases this month. That may help with inflation. The Fed also has prepared the markets for higher interest rates in 2022. That, too, may help.⁴

For now, it’s important to understand that Inflation can influence interest rates, which often play a role in how a portfolio is constructed. We’re keenly focused on what’s next for inflation to determine if any portfolio changes are appropriate in the future.

Biden Signs Infrastucture Bill

At the White House on Monday, President Biden signed a $1T bipartisan infrastructure bill set to enable enhancements for transportation and utilities over the next five years.¹

For each of those five years, $550 billion will be invested into both the physical infrastructure of the nation (roads, highways, and rail) as well as bringing broadband internet to areas it hasn’t been previously available.¹

The bill will also create jobs in many parts of the country. Projects ranging from replacing lead pipes in water systems and upgrades to bridges will now move from the planning stages, and into the real world.¹

As usual, large government programs mean money for private concerns as contractors place bids and get hired for these projects. You may have questions about how these infrastructure projects might affect your overall financial strategy. I’d be happy to make time to discuss your questions and concerns as these projects break ground.

Tax Changes: What’s In, What’s Out?

While it’s still too early to draw any final conclusions, Congress is getting closer to outlining what tax law changes are under consideration to pay for the proposed $1.75 trillion Build Back Better Plan.¹

For now, it appears that changes to capital gains and personal tax rates are off the table. The conversation is shifting to a new corporate minimum tax while adjustments to estate taxes may be still under consideration.¹

Investors cheered as some of the tax-law uncertainty was lifted. In October, the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index tacked on nearly 7 percent.²

While some initiatives are left behind, others are seeing renewed interest. A growing number also appear to be warming up to the idea of a “billionaire’s tax,” a special tax designed to focus on the 800 or so wealthiest Americans.³

Critics of the billionaire’s tax remind the legislature that when the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) was introduced in 1969, it was targeted at 155 individuals with adjusted gross incomes above $200,000 who paid zero federal income tax on their 1967 tax return. But by 2017, nearly five million taxpayers were assessed a minimum tax.^4,5

“It ain’t over till it’s over,” said baseball legend Yogi Berra, when his 1973 New York Mets appeared out of the National League Pennant race. (The Mets eventually won the pennant but lost the World Series in 7 games to the Oakland Athletics.)⁶

If you’re feeling unsettled as Congress continues to work on these tax law changes, please reach out. Or if you want to talk about World Series baseball, give us a call.

Estate Taxes May Be Amended Soon

To help raise revenue to pay for President Biden’s Build Back Better Plan, Congress is considering a number of tax law changes, including adjusting estate taxes.

One of the proposals would reduce the estate tax exemption to anywhere between $3.5 and $5 million, with an effective date of January 1, 2022. Another proposal would bring new rules to grantor trusts, including a change to how life insurance held in a trust would be taxed.^1,2

At this point, many ideas are being evaluated, but nothing is final. Corporate tax rates, individual tax rates, and capital gains taxes are also on the negotiating table. For now, the federal estate tax exemption remains at $11.7 for 2021, with a married couple having a combined exemption for 2021 of $23.4 million.³

But it wouldn’t be a surprise if the estate tax law changed as part of the overall plan. In 2019, 2,570 taxable estate-tax returns were filed, and they owed a combined $13.2 billion. Lowering the estate tax exemption to $5 million would raise an estimated $52.3 billion over five years.¹

As difficult as it may be, the best approach is to wait-and-see. It would be hasty to make any estate changes based on current discussions.

But if you’re feeling unsettled as Congress continues to work on these changes, please reach out. Estate strategies often need adjustments as tax laws change, and it’s best to be prepared for a range of potential new rules coming out of Washington.