Pullbacks, Corrections, and Bear Markets

When the market drops, some investors lose perspective that downtrends and uptrends are part of the investing cycle. When stock prices break lower, it’s a good time to review common terms that are used to describe the market’s downward momentum.

Pullbacks.

A pullback represents the mildest form of a selloff in the markets. You might hear an investor or trader refer to a dip of 5-10% after a peak as a “pullback.”¹

Corrections.

The next degree in severity is a “correction.” If a market or markets retreat 10% to 20% after a peak, you’re in correction territory. At this point, you’re likely on guard for the next tier.²

Bear Market.

In a bear market, the decline is 20% or more since the last peak.²

All of this is normal.

“Pullbacks, corrections, and bear markets are a part of the investing cycle.”

When stock prices are trending lower, some investors can second-guess their risk tolerance. But periods of market volatility can be the worst times to consider portfolio decisions.

Pullbacks and corrections are relatively common and represent something that any investor may see from time to time in their financial life, often several times over the course of a decade. Bear markets are much rarer. In fact, between April 1947 and September 2021, there have only been 14 bear markets.³

A retirement strategy formed with a financial professional has market volatility factored in. As you continue your relationship with that professional, they will also be at your side to make any adjustments and help you make any necessary decisions along the way. Their goal is to help you pursue your goals.

Questions About the Conflict in Ukraine

It’s been a difficult 24 hours, with many of us waking up to learn about the terrible events in Ukraine. You’ve likely heard about the possible second-order effects, like a skittish stock market, potential energy supply constriction, and the threat of continuing supply chain disruptions.

No one knows how long the current crisis will last or how it may further rattle an already volatile market. While we are no foreign policy experts, we wanted to reach out to let you know we are keeping a close eye on the latest news as it unfolds, with a specific focus on the ways it may impact our clients.

If you’d like to follow along with us, we found the ABC News live blog insightful and well-sourced. Bloomberg also has excellent reporting on how the conflict may further impact oil and other commodity prices.

Please don’t hesitate to join us for our Live Q&A Zoom event, with any questions or concerns you might have. Dr. Jason Van Duyn and the AQuest Advisors look forward to answering your question. In the meantime, our thoughts and prayers are with the people of Ukraine and anyone impacted by the crisis.

Join us Monday, Feb. 28th 4:30pm
Zoom Question & Answer Session

Wall Street’s main benchmarks tumbled at Thursday’s open after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a military invasion of Ukraine overnight.

This fuels uncertainty in the way we handle our finances. That is why we are inviting you to attend a brief, 20-minute Live Question & Answer zoom session.

This meeting will focus exclusively on answering your questions.

Click here to REGISTER

Risks of Cryptocurrency

Like many Americans, you probably saw at least a few Super Bowl advertisements for the cryptocurrency industry last weekend. And if you’ve been paying attention to the news, there’s no question you’ve heard of someone creating a cryptocurrency wallet. With all the excitement, you may even be tempted to invest in, or mine, cryptocurrency yourself.

But before you dive in, you should know that cryptocurrency is inherently risky.

Unlike banks and brokerages, there’s no regulatory body watching over the crypto market, which reports to the state and federal government. In addition, crypto prices are heavily susceptible to sentiment. As sentiment changes, prices shift — sometimes drastically. In other words, cryptocurrency is driven mainly by the hope that someone will purchase it for more in the future than the initial investment.

At the same time, many cryptocurrency exchanges have become targets for criminals. For example, did you hear about what the Justice Department has called its “largest financial seizure ever?” A couple was recently accused of conspiring to launder billions of dollars worth of bitcoin stolen during a 2016 hack, which targeted a well-known virtual cryptocurrency exchange.¹

It’s natural to be excited about a new opportunity, especially one with as much media buzz as cryptocurrency continues to generate. But before you get started, it’s crucial to research and understand the risks. We’re always here to help.

Ukraine, Inflation and the Fed

There is plenty to worry about these days.

Top of mind is the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Closer to home, high inflation persists, and the Fed is preparing to tighten monetary policy.

And while Covid is moving away from the front page, the markets have a lingering worry that another variant could emerge. Before long, the midterm elections will begin making headlines as well, as candidates take positions.

Add it all up, and you see the S&P 500 teetering on correction territory as some investors ponder the best way to ride out the next few months.

If you’re worried about the financial markets, please reach out. I understand that current events can be a bit overwhelming, and you may feel the need to be proactive. But remember, we created your financial strategy based on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, and we anticipated there would be unsettling events along the way.

How to Appeal Your Property Taxes

Between 30 percent and 60 percent of taxable property has an inflated assessment, which may lead to higher property tax bills. Moreover, typically fewer than 5 percent of taxpayers dispute their assessment.¹

For homeowners who think their local government may have assessed their property’s value too high, there are ways to appeal and potentially win a lower assessment, which may save hundreds or even thousands of dollars annually in future taxes.²

The procedures and requirements for challenging the assessed value of your property will differ by state, but you should consider a number of general factors.

Determine Whether an Appeal Is Justified

Your opinion of the fairness and accuracy of your property assessment is not enough. You will need to gather facts to support your claim. One way to do that is to see how your home compares to similar homes in your neighborhood.

Check to see if there are any obvious errors (e.g., is the square footage incorrect?). If you have found an outright error, you may be able to simply bring it to the assessor’s attention and get it corrected.

Consider the Cost-Benefit Ratio

Appealing your assessment may cost you money, depending on the complexity of the process and whether you choose to use professional resources. You are the ultimate judge of weighing the costs related to some uncertain financial reward, but know the cost-benefit before you start. For instance, you may not want to spend $1,000 to save $200 per year.

Use an Independent Appraiser

Your appeal will have less credence if the market evaluation is made by a local real estate agent. A comparative appraisal will carry considerably more weight when it is performed by a credible, third-party expert.

Follow All the Rules

Appeals have precise deadlines and procedures. You need to meet them; otherwise you run the risk of losing out on the opportunity to have your appeal heard for another year. Call your local officials or visit the relevant website to familiarize yourself with the appeal process requirements.

A Decision Not Made Is Still a Decision

Whether through inertia or trepidation, investors who put off important investment decisions might consider the admonition offered by motivational speaker Brian Tracy, “Almost any decision is better than no decision at all.”¹

This investment inaction is played out in many ways, often silently, invisibly and with potential consequence to an individual’s future financial security.

Let’s review some of the forms this takes.

Your 401(k) Plan

The worst indecision may be the failure to enroll. Not only do nonparticipants sacrifice one of the best ways to save for their eventual retirement, but they also forfeit the money that any employer matching contributions represents. Not participating holds the potential to be one of the most costly indecisions one can make.

The other way individuals let indecision get the best of them is by not selecting the investments for the contributions they make to the 401(k) plan. When a participant fails to make an investment selection, the plan may have provisions for automatically investing that money. And that investment selection may not be consistent with the individual’s time horizon, risk tolerance, and goals.

Under the SECURE Act, in most circumstances, you must begin taking required minimum distributions from your 401(k) or other defined contribution plan in the year you turn 72. Withdrawals from your 401(k) or other defined contribution plans are taxed as ordinary income, and if taken before age 59½, may be subject to a 10 percent federal income tax penalty.

Non-Retirement Plan Investments

For homeowners, “stuff” just seems to accumulate over time. The same may be true for investors. Some buy investments based on articles they have read or based on the recommendations of a family member. Others may have investments held in a previous employer’s 401(k) plan. 

Over time, we can end up with a collection of investments that may have no connection to our investment objectives. Because of the dynamics of the markets, an investment that may have once made good sense at one time may no longer be advantageous today.

By not periodically reviewing what we own, which would allow us to cull inappropriate investments – or even determining if the portfolio reflects our current investment objectives – we are making a default decision to own investments that may be inappropriate.

Whatever your situation, your retirement investments require careful attention and may benefit from deliberate, thoughtful decision-making. Your retired self will be grateful that you invested the time … today.

Alternative Investments – Going Mainstream

Recent years have witnessed the mainstreaming of alternative investments for certain accredited investors. In fact, alternative investments are expected to grow from $13.9 trillion in 2020 to $21.1 trillion in 2025.^1,2

The impetus behind this projected growth is the belief that alternative investments offer the potential to enhance the risk/reward characteristics of a traditionally diversified portfolio.³

“Alternative investments” is an umbrella term for a disparate range of investment strategies and assets that might be best defined as investments that use a different approach from traditional instruments.

While today’s portfolios may benefit from some diversification to alternative investments, it should be emphasized that the risk, return, and market correlations will vary widely among them.³ Consequently, individuals need to consider what their objective is for adding alternative investments and select the appropriate strategy to pursue their needs.

Types of Alternative Investments

Private Equity — Seeks to participate in the growth of private companies. Private equity is an illiquid asset class that seeks long-term appreciation away from public markets.

Hedge Funds — Investments that have broad flexibility in the types of strategies they can employ to follow their stated investment objectives.

Commodity Pools — Enterprises that attract funds from people who are looking for the pool managers to engage in commodity-related trades.

Alternative investments are geared to “accredited” or “qualified” investors who are considered high-net-worth individuals with investment experience, and these investments usually have high minimum investment requirements. Some investment companies have structured mutual funds after alternative investments, providing individuals with access to the investment strategy while offering daily liquidity at lower minimum investment requirements.

Mutual funds are sold by prospectus. Please consider the charges, risks, expenses, and investment objectives carefully before investing. A prospectus containing this and other information about the investment company can be obtained from your financial professional. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.

Your Emergency Fund: How Much Is Enough?

Have you ever had one of those months? The water heater stops heating, the dishwasher stops washing, and your family ends up on a first-name basis with the nurse at urgent care. Then, as you’re driving to work, you see smoke coming from under your hood.

Bad things happen to the best of us, and sometimes it seems like they come in waves. That’s when an emergency cash fund can come in handy.

One survey found that nearly 25% of Americans have no emergency savings. Another survey found that 40% of Americans said they wouldn’t be able to comfortably handle an unexpected $1,000 expense.^1,2

How Much Money?

How large should an emergency fund be? There is no “one-size-fits-all” answer. The ideal amount may depend on your financial situation and lifestyle. For example, if you own a home or have dependents, you may be more likely to face financial emergencies. And if a job loss affects your income, you may need emergency funds for months.

Coming Up with Cash

If saving several months of income seems unreasonable, don’t despair. Start with a more modest goal, such as saving $1,000, and build your savings a bit at a time. Consider setting up automatic monthly transfers into the fund.

Once your savings begin to build, you may be tempted to use the money in the account for something other than an emergency. Try to avoid that. Instead, budget and prepare separately for bigger expenses you know are coming.

Where Do I Put It?

Many people open traditional savings accounts to hold emergency funds. They typically offer modest rates of return.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insures bank accounts for up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution, in principal and interest.³

Others turn to money market accounts or money market funds in emergencies. While money market accounts are savings accounts, money market funds are considered low-risk securities. Money market funds are not backed by any government institution, which means they can lose money. Depending on your particular goals and the amount you have saved, some combination of lower-risk investments may be your best choice.

Money held in money market funds is not insured or guaranteed by the FDIC or any other government agency. Money market funds seek to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 a share. However, it is possible to lose money by investing in a money market fund.⁴

Money market mutual funds are sold by prospectus. Please consider the charges, risks, expenses, and investment objectives carefully before investing. A prospectus containing this and other information about the investment company can be obtained from your financial professional. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.

The only thing you can know about unexpected expenses is that they’re coming. Having an emergency fund may help to alleviate stress and worry that can come with them. If you lack emergency savings now, consider taking steps to create a cushion for the future.

Catch-Up Contributions

A recent survey found that 23% of people were very confident about having enough money to live comfortably through their retirement years. At the same time, 33% were not confident.¹

Congress in 2001 passed a law that can help older workers make up for lost time. But few may understand how this generous offer can add up over time.²

The “catch-up” provision allows workers who are over age 50 to make contributions to their qualified retirement plans in excess of the limits imposed on younger workers.

How It Works

Contributions to a traditional 401(k) plan are limited to $19,500 in 2019. Those who are over age 50 – or who reach age 50 before the end of the year – may be eligible to set aside up to $26,000 in 2019.³

Setting aside an extra $6,500 each year into a tax-deferred retirement account has the potential to make a big difference in the eventual balance of the account. And by extension, in the eventual income the account may generate. (See accompanying chart.)

Investing for Impact

Many investors are looking to build a portfolio that reflects their socially responsible values, while giving them the potential for solid returns. That’s where SRI Investing, Impact Investing, and ESG Investing may play a role.

In the past, some investors regarded these investment strategies as too restrictive. But over time, improved evaluative data and competitive returns made these strategies more mainstream. Even though SRI, ESG investing, and Impact Investing share many similarities, they differ in some fundamental ways. Read on to learn more.¹

ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) Investing
ESG Investing stands for environmental, social, and governance investing. The model assesses investments based on specific criteria, such as ethical business practices, environmental conservation, and local community impact. The popularity of ESG investing has grown: in the United States alone, there are more than 350 ESG mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) available. Just a decade ago, there were only 100 ESG funds.^2,3,4,5

SRI (Socially Responsible Investing)
SRI uses criteria from ESG investing to actively eliminate or select investments according to ethical guidelines. SRI investors may use ESG factors to apply negative or positive screens when choosing how to build their portfolio. For example, an investor may wish to allocate a portion of their portfolio to companies that contribute to charitable causes. In the U.S., more than $46.5 trillion are currently invested according to SRI strategies. This is an increase from the $12 trillion invested in SRIs by the end of 2017.^4,5,6

Impact Investing
Also known as thematic investing, impact investing differs from the two above. The main goal of impact investing is to secure a positive outcome regardless of profit. For example, an impact investor may use ESG criteria to find and invest in a company dedicated to the development of a cure for cancer no matter the outcome of that investment.^5,6

The biggest takeaway? There are plenty of choices to keep your investments aligned with your personal beliefs. No matter how you decide to structure your investments, don’t forget it’s always a smart move to speak with your financial professional before making a major change.