How the Fed Has Navigated World Events

I’ve always been a little cautious when people say, “it’s different this time.” But the table below suggests the Fed is approaching 2022’s inflation differently than other financial events in recent history.

There’s no doubt that the Fed is managing through a difficult time, and tightening appears to be the appropriate response. Fed Chair Powell knows that few financial events can be as devastating as high inflation over time – especially for those living on a fixed income.

I remain optimistic that the Fed has a strategy to tame inflation. In the meantime, if you have questions, please let me know. I’m always happy to hear from you.

How You Can Purchase I Bonds Direct from the Treasury

With inflation hovering near 40-year highs, some investors are looking for investments that keep pace with rising prices. For many, a Series I Savings Bond is just the ticket. I Bonds give investors a rate of return plus inflation protection and are backed by the U.S. government.

It’s been big business. The Treasury sold more than $27 billion of I Bonds since last year. That’s more than a 70-fold increase from 2020, when inflation hovered in the 1 percent range.¹

Purchasing I Bonds through Treasurydirect.gov is simple. In fact, the site was recently redesigned, making now an excellent time to give it a look.²

Here’s how to get started.

1. Gather your info. Make sure you have the following close at hand: your taxpayer identification number, current address, checking or savings account information, and email address.

2. Go to Treasurydirect.gov’s account creation page. Navigate to the bottom of the page and select “Apply Now” on the left. This will begin your account creation journey. Next, you will choose between an Individual or Entity account. Select the Individual account type (the default option) and click “Submit.”

3. Enter your info. Using the information gathered in step 1, fill in the fields requested and check the box at the bottom to certify your Taxpayer Identification Number. Click “Submit.

4. Select a personalized image. Take some time here to select an image and caption you will remember. Think of this as a visual password for your account. Click “Submit.”

5. Secure your account. Select your password and security questions on this screen. Make sure the answers to your security questions are impossible to guess but easy to remember. Click “Submit” to move to the final step.

6. Check your email. Finally, look for your TreasuryDirect account number in your email. You’ll need this to log into your account later.³

You can begin purchasing I Bonds now that you’ve created your account. Here are a few things to keep in mind. I Bonds earn interest for 30 years unless you cash them in. You can do this after a year has passed from the time of purchase, but you’ll lose the previous three months of interest. However, if you let them mature for five years or more, there is no penalty.

The maximum amount you can invest is $10,000 per person per year. A married couple can buy up to $20,000. Parents can create custodial accounts for children and then make a purchase. A person can invest up to $15,000 if they elect to get tax refunds in I Bonds.⁴

Questions about I Bonds or anything else financial? Feel free to reach out anytime.

Inflation & Your Money

“If the current annual inflation rate is 8.2 percent, why do my bills seem like they’re 10 percent higher than last year?”¹

Many of us ask ourselves that question, and it illustrates the importance of understanding how inflation is reported and how it can affect investments.

What Is Inflation?

Inflation is defined as an upward movement in the average level of prices. Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a report called the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to track these fluctuations. It was developed from detailed expenditure information provided by families and individuals on purchases made in the following categories: food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other groups and services.²

How Applicable Is the CPI?

While it’s the commonly used indicator of inflation, the CPI has come under scrutiny. For example, the CPI rose 7.9 percent for the 12-months ending in February 2022. However, a closer look at the report shows movement in prices on a more detailed level. Energy prices, for example, rose 25.6 percent during those 12 months.¹

Are Investments Affected by Inflation?

They sure are. As inflation rises and falls, three notable effects are observed.

First, inflation reduces the real rate of return on investments. So, if an investment earned 6 percent for a 12-month period and inflation averaged 1.5 percent over that time, the investment’s real rate of return would have been 4.5 percent. If taxes are considered, the real rate of return may be reduced even further.³

Second, inflation puts purchasing power at risk. When prices rise, a fixed amount of money has the power to purchase fewer and fewer goods.

Third, inflation can influence the actions of the Federal Reserve. If the Fed wants to control inflation, it has various methods for reducing the amount of money in circulation. Hypothetically, a smaller supply of money would lead to less spending, which may lead to lower prices and lower inflation.

Empower Yourself with a Trusted Professional

When inflation is low, it’s easy to overlook how rising prices are affecting a household budget. On the other hand, when inflation is high, it may be tempting to make more sweeping changes in response to increasing prices. The best approach may be to reach out to your financial professional to help you develop a sound investment strategy that takes both possible scenarios into account

Understanding Marginal Income Tax Brackets

By any measure, the tax code is huge. It is over 2,000 pages long, and even longer with footnotes.¹ And almost weekly, the Internal Revenue Service publishes a 20- to 50-page bulletin about various aspects of the tax code.² Fortunately, it’s not necessary to wade through these massive libraries to get a basic understanding of how income taxes work. Knowing a few key concepts may provide a solid foundation. One of the key concepts is marginal income tax brackets. Taxpayers pay the tax rate in a given bracket only for that portion of their overall income that falls within that bracket’s range.

Tax Works

Seeing how marginal income tax brackets work is helpful because it shows the progressive nature of income taxes. It also helps you visualize how your total tax rate can be calculated. But remember, this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult a tax professional for specific information regarding your individual situation.

How Federal Income Tax Brackets Work

Say a married couple, filing jointly for the 2022 tax year, had a taxable income of $200,000. Each dollar over $178,150 – or $21,850 – would fall into the 24% federal income tax bracket. However, the couple’s total federal tax would be $35,671 – about 18% of their adjusted gross income. This is a hypothetical example used for illustrative purposes only. It assumes no tax credits apply.

2022 Federal Income Tax Brackets

Your federal income tax bracket is determined by two factors: your total income and your tax-filing classification. For the 2022 tax year, there are seven tax brackets for ordinary income – ranging from 10% to 37% – and four classifications: single, married filing jointly, married filing separately, and head of household.³

Stubborn Inflation Tests Fed’s Resolve

Stubborn doesn’t seem like a strong enough word, but that’s how Fed officials are describing inflation.

Inflation’s “stubbornness” has been on full display in recent weeks: First, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed that costs remain high for producers of goods and services. Then in September’s more widely followed Consumer Price Index (CPI) high prices continued to persevere.

To address inflation, the Fed’s primary tool is short-term interest rates. As it pushes rates higher, the Fed aims to slow the economy by raising borrowing costs. As economic activity cools, the Fed expects to see the CPI and PPI trend lower.

In the table below, you can see what professional traders anticipate will happen with interest rates over the next year. They expect the Fed will have to raise short-term rates to nearly 5% in 2023 to lower inflation.

We know this year has had its ups and downs. Just when it appears to have turned a corner, something else happens, and the financial markets are under pressure again.

You may have heard the old saying: “Don’t worry about the horse, just load the wagon.” Now is an excellent time to stay focused on what you can control, like your “wagon,” and we’ll keep an eye on the “horses” in the meantime.

The Biggest COLA Increase Since 1981

How well do you remember 1981? Harrison Ford had his first bow as Indiana Jones in Raiders of the Lost Ark. Frogger and Donkey Kong were all the rage at video arcades. Bob Ross left the Air Force and took up painting. On top of that, we had the largest Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on record: 11.2%.

This year’s COLA increase won’t reach that high, but the Senior Citizens League anticipated it to be as much as 8.7%. As it turns out, they were right on the nose. This tops last year’s 5.9% increase.¹

What this increase means for those collecting Social Security benefits is additional help battling inflation. The average Social Security retiree benefit will increase $146 per month, to $1,827 in 2023, from $1,681 in 2022.¹

Why is it happening now? Congress has COLA increases pegged to rising inflation. While there’s been a great deal of talk about inflation this year, the increase depends on the much-anticipated official numbers: the third quarter’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is measured against the CPI of the previous year, and the COLA is calculated from that.

While this increase has been widely anticipated, you may still have questions about this and other economic factors. I’m happy to discuss how this might affect your financial strategy.

When Heirs are Imperfect

Passing your estate to an heir with credit problems or a gambling or alcohol addiction might not only lead to that wealth being squandered, but the inheritance could worsen the destructive behaviors.

Of course, you don’t want to disinherit your child simply because of their personal challenges. There are potential solutions that allow parents to control and incent behaviors long after they are gone, ensuring that a troubled child’s inheritance won’t be misused.¹

Some Common Approaches

A trust is one idea, since it can pass wealth to an heir while maintaining control over the how, when, where, and why the funds can be accessed.²

When establishing such a trust, you can appoint a trustee, who is typically an independent, third party (e.g., trust company) or family member. Appointing a family member, however, may be fraught with problems. Hypothetically speaking, who do you think may be better able to resist the pleadings of a desperate beneficiary? A close relative or a corporate entity?

Furthermore, the trust can specify the precise circumstances under which money will be paid to its beneficiary, or it can specify that the trustee will retain complete discretion in the disbursement of funds.

Structuring Ideas

Trusts can also include incentives, such as requiring drug or alcohol testing before the funds are paid out, or perhaps, that a lump-sum payment be made only upon graduation from college.

To ensure that an heir is committed to change, lump-sum amounts can be paid out after prescribed periods of time, e.g., five years of sobriety. To encourage your heir to seek gainful employment, the trust might pay out a dollar for every dollar in wages. Alternatively, the trust can be written whereby payments are made directly to service providers, like a landlord or utility company.

Trusts can be flexible in their design, but before moving forward with a trust, consider working with a professional who is familiar with the rules and regulations.

Mutual Funds vs. ETFs

The growth of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been explosive. In 2005, there were less than 500; by the latter half of 2021, there were over 8,000 investing in a wide range of stocks, bonds, and other securities and instruments.¹

At first glance, ETFs have a lot in common with mutual funds. Both offer shares in a pool of investments designed to pursue a specific investment goal. And both manage costs and may offer some degree of diversification, depending on their investment objective. Diversification is an approach to help manage investment risk. It does not eliminate the risk of loss if security prices decline.

Structural Differences

Mutual funds accumulate a pool of money that is then invested to pursue the objectives stated in the fund’s prospectus. The resulting collection of stocks, bonds, and other securities is professionally managed by an investment company.

ETFs work in reverse. An investment company creates a new company, into which it moves a block of shares to pursue a specific investment objective. For example, an investment company may move a block of shares to track the performance of the Standard & Poor’s 500. The investment company then sells shares in this new company.²

ETFs trade like stocks and are listed on stock exchanges and sold by broker-dealers. Mutual funds, on the other hand, are not listed on stock exchanges and can be bought and sold through a variety of other channels — including financial professionals, brokerage firms, and directly from fund companies.

The price of an ETF is determined continuously throughout the day. It fluctuates based on investor interest in the security and may trade at a “premium” or a “discount” to the underlying assets that comprise the ETF. Most mutual funds are priced at the end of the trading day. So, no matter when you buy a share during the trading day, its price will be determined when most U.S. stock exchanges typically close.

Tax Differences

There are tax differences, as well. Since most mutual funds are allowed to trade securities, the fund may incur a capital gain or loss and generate dividend or interest income for its shareholders. With an ETF, you may only owe taxes on any capital gains when you sell the security. (An ETF also may distribute a capital gain if the makeup of the underlying assets is adjusted).³

Determining whether an ETF or a mutual fund is appropriate for your portfolio may require an in-depth knowledge of how both investments operate. In fact, you may benefit from including both investment tools in your portfolio.

Amounts in mutual funds and ETFs are subject to fluctuation in value and market risk. Shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds are sold only by prospectus. Please consider the charges, risks, expenses, and investment objectives carefully before investing. A prospectus containing this and other information about the investment company can be obtained from your financial professional. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.

3 Estate Challenges for Blended Families

Preparing your estate can be complicated, and if you’re a part of a blended family, estate decisions can be even more complex and nuanced. Blended families take on many forms, but typically consist of couples with children from previous relationships. Here are a few case studies to help illustrate some of the challenges.

Case Study #1: Children From Previous Marriages

Simple wills often are structured to leave all assets to the surviving spouse. If your estate strategy relies on this type of will, you could risk overlooking children from previous marriages. Also, while it’s unsettling to consider, the surviving spouse can end up changing a will without proper measures put in place.¹

When new children join a blended family, estate strategies can get even more complicated. But with a well-structured approach, you can direct how to distribute your assets.

Case Study #2: When One Partner Has Significantly More Assets

While the divorce rate has been trending lower, the number of remarriages (2nd or more marriages) has increased. One person entering into a new marriage may have more assets than their spouse, given that 40% of all new marriages are remarriages for one or both spouses. An estate strategy can help ensure that your assets pass down according to your wishes.²

Case Study #3: Traditional Trusts May Not Be Enough

In blended families, a traditional trust is a good start, but it may not go far enough. One possible solution is to create three trusts (one for each spouse, in addition to a joint trust) to help address different scenarios.³

Using a trust involves a complex set of tax rules and regulations. Before moving forward with a trust, consider working with a professional familiar with the rules and regulations.

Starting the Process

Blended families are pretty common these days. If you’re in that position, it’s important to remember that you can create an estate strategy to address your specific situation. The first step may be an estate document review.

JOLTS of Optimism for the Markets?

We measure the jobs market in many ways, but the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS report seems to be of particular interest to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The JOLTS report tells the Fed how many job openings there are each month. It also shows how many people were hired, quit, or were laid off.

Given the above, there’s no doubt the Fed welcomed the news illustrated in the chart below.

The Fed is looking for three key things in its fight to stabilize the economy. A slowed Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index to fall, and the labor market to soften. Now, GDP has already slowed, but as we all know, inflation has yet to be tamed, and the labor market is mixed at best.

This means the financial markets are in a “bad news is good news” phase. Put another way, the bad news of fewer job openings is good news to Fed officials. We understand this “bad is good” phase can be confusing, to say the least, so please reach out if you have any questions.