Inflation, Interest Rates, & Indiana Jones

Stop me if you heard this already—roughly half the population wasn’t alive last time inflation was at this level.

It’s true. According to IMDb.com, Raiders of the Lost Ark was the #1 movie at the box office the last time prices were rising at a rate of 9% a year.

In economic circles, the most widely followed inflation barometer, the Consumer Price Index, is considered a lag indicator, meaning that by the time it’s reported, prices likely have changed. The question is, are prices continuing to trend higher or are they moving lower?

The Fed will attempt to answer that question at its July meeting, when it makes a decision about short-term interest rates. There’s speculation rates could jump as much as 1% to curb inflation. But the Fed has to watch for a backfire, as a 1% move may send a desperate signal to the financial markets.

High inflation is a pain in the wallet, but nothing lasts forever. In the meantime, try not to watch the markets too closely, and go to the movies this summer. Who knows? We might be watching history in the making.

Understanding Extended Care

Addressing the potential risks of extended term care expenses may be one of the biggest financial challenges for individuals who are developing a retirement strategy.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 70% of people over age 65 can expect to need extended care services at some point in their lives. So understanding the various types of extended care services – and what those services may cost – is critical as you consider your retirement approach.¹ 

What Is Extended Care?

Extended care is not a single activity. It refers to a variety of medical and non–medical services needed by those who have a chronic illness or disability – most commonly associated with aging.

Extended care can include everything from assistance with activities of daily living – help dressing, bathing, using the bathroom, or even driving to the store – to more intensive therapeutic and medical care requiring the services of skilled medical personnel.

Extended care may be provided at home, at a community center, in an assisted living facility, or in a skilled nursing home. And extended care is not exclusively for the elderly; it is possible to need extended care at any age.

How Much Does Extended Care Cost?

Extended care costs vary state by state and region by region. The 2020 national average for care in a skilled care facility (single occupancy in a nursing home) was $105,850 a year. The national average for care in an assisted living center (single occupancy) was $51,600 a year. Home health aides cost a median $24 per hour, but that rate may increase when a licensed nurse is required.²

What Are the Payment Choices?

Often, extended care is provided by family and friends. Providing care can be a burden, however, and the need for assistance tends to increase with age.³

Individuals who would rather not burden their family and friends have two main choices for covering the cost of extended care: they can choose to self-insure or they can purchase extended care insurance.

Many self-insure by default – simply because they haven’t made other arrangements. Those who self-insure may depend on personal savings and investments to fund any extended care needs. The other approach is to consider purchasing extended care insurance, which can cover all levels of care, from skilled care to custodial care to in-home assistance.

When it comes to addressing your extended care needs, many look to select a strategy that may help them protect assets, preserve dignity, and maintain independence. If those concepts are important to you, consider your approach for extended care.

Euro/Dollar Parity & Summer Travel

Summer travel is picking up this year. If you’re headed to Europe, you may notice that you get more bang for your buck.

Why is that?

For the first time in almost 20 years, the U.S. dollar and the euro have reached parity. Souvenirs will be cheaper for Americans, but Europeans coming this direction may feel the pinch of more expensive goods and services.

The U.S. dollar has strengthened against the euro in part because of differences in monetary policy. The U.S. has been raising rates to slow inflation, while the European Central Bank (ECB) has been hesitant for fear of slowing economic growth. However, with the ECB expected to raise short-term rates this month for the first time in over a decade, euro/dollar parity may be short-lived.

If there’s anything about your investment strategy that you’d like to review, let’s talk. And if you’re headed to Europe, send me a vacation photo!

Navigating Retirement Pitfalls

Much is written about the classic financial mistakes that plague start-ups, family businesses, corporations, and charities. Some classic financial missteps have been known to plague retirees, too.

Calling them “missteps” may be a bit harsh, as not all of them represent errors in judgment. Either way, becoming aware of these potential pitfalls may help you to avoid falling into them in the future.

Managing Social Security. Social Security benefits are structured to rise about 8% for every year you delay receiving them after your full retirement age. Is waiting a few years to apply for benefits an idea you might consider? Filing for your monthly benefits before you reach your full retirement age can mean comparatively smaller monthly payments.¹

Managing medical costs. One report estimates that a healthy couple retiring at age 65 can expect nearly $208,000 in out-of-pocket medical expenses during the course of their retirement, even with additional coverage such as Medicare Part D, Medigap, and dental insurance. Having a strategy can help you be better prepared for medical costs.²

Understanding longevity. Actuaries at the Social Security Administration project that around a third of today’s 65-year-olds will live to age 90, with about one in seven living 95 years or longer. The prospect of a 20- or 30-year retirement is not only reasonable, but it should be expected.³

Managing withdrawals. You may have heard of the “4% rule,” a guideline stating that you should take out only about 4% of your retirement savings annually. Each person’s situation is unique but having some guidelines can help you prepare.

Managing taxes. Some people enter retirement with investments in both taxable and tax-advantaged accounts. Which accounts should you draw money from first? To answer the question, a qualified financial professional would need to review your financial situation so they can better understand your goals and risk tolerance.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not a replacement for real-life advice, so make sure to consult your tax, legal, and accounting professionals before modifying your investment strategy for tax considerations.

Managing other costs, like college. There is no “financial aid” program for retirement. There are no “retirement loans.” A financial professional can help you review your anticipated income and costs before you commit to a long-term strategy, and help you make a balanced decision between retirement and helping with the cost of college for your children or grandchildren.

What Story Is the Price to Earnings Ratio Telling?

If you’re trying to get an inside edge on Wall Street, you’re probably paying attention to an array of stats and measurements. But there’s one indicator you might be overlooking.

I’m talking about the price-to-earnings ratio. P/E ratio divides a company’s stock price by its earnings per share. You also can get a P/E ratio for a stock market index, like the Standard & Poor’s 500.

On July 8, the predicted or “future” 12 month P/E ratio of the S&P 500 was 16.3, coming in below the five-year average of 18.6 but above the 20- year average of 15.5.¹

Does this mean stocks are undervalued? Perhaps based on the five-year average, but not so much according to the 20-year stat. Potato, potahto. One thing is clear: the P/E ratio tells us that stocks were more expensive late last year than they are today.

One of my favorite sayings is, “Time in the market beats timing the market.” Keep following your established strategy and try not to overthink current events.

How Retirement Spending Changes With Time

New retirees sometimes worry that they are spending too much, too soon. Should they scale back? Are they at risk of outliving their money? This concern may be legitimate. Some households “live it up” and spend more than they anticipate as retirement starts to unfold. In 10 or 20 years, though, they may not spend nearly as much.

By The Numbers

The initial stage of retirement can be expensive. The Bureau of Labor Statistics figures show average spending of $60,076 per year for households headed by pre-retirees, Americans age 55-64. That figure drops to $45,221 for households headed by people age 65 and older.¹

When retirees are well into their 70s, spending often decreases. The Government Accountability Office data shows that people age 75-79 spend 41% less on average than people in their peak spending years (which usually occur in the late 40s).

Spending Pattern

Some suggest that retirement spending is best depicted by a U-shaped graph — It rises, then falls, then increases quickly due to medical expenses.

But in a 2017 study, the investment firm BlackRock found that retiree spending declined very slightly over time. Also, medical expenses only spiked for a small percentage of retirees in the last two years of their lives.²

What’s the best course for you? Your spending pattern will depend on your personal choices as you enter retirement. A carefully designed strategy can help you be prepared and enjoy your retirement years.

3 Tips for the Second Half of 2022

With half the year behind us, now is a great time to consider what the remainder of 2022 may hold. However, with inflation and economic uncertainty causing many of us to delay or cancel vacations, large purchases, and more, it can be challenging to know where to start.

Here are a few tips to help make the rest of the year as smooth as possible:

Deflate Inflation – Travel-related costs have skyrocketed, causing many to delay or cancel vacation plans. But are you overreacting to current headlines? Let’s talk if you’re wavering on a scheduled trip.

Embrace Uncertainty – If you’ve delayed a major purchase lately, you’re not alone. Economic uncertainty has caused many to rethink their expenditures. When your net worth declines, the “wealth effect” tells consumers to rein in spending. But our portfolio strategy takes into account periods of market volatility.

Practice Patience – The need to take action can push even the most seasoned investors into questionable territory. Instead, try to take a long view of the markets. Remaining patient and taking a break from watching the markets closely may help weather the storm.

Let us know if you ever want to chat about your future goals or current economic conditions. We’re always ready to help.

Qualifying For Medicare Under Age 65

When you are under 65, you become eligible for Medicare if:

1. You have received Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) checks for at least 24 months
2. Or, you have been diagnosed with End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD)

Eligibility for Medicare due to a disability

You may qualify for Medicare due to a disability if you have been receiving SSDI checks for more than 24 months, also known as the two-year waiting period. The two-year waiting period begins the first month you receive an SSDI check. You will be automatically enrolled in Medicare at the beginning of the 25th month that you receive an SSDI check.

If you receive SSDI because you have Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, or ALS, Medicare automatically begins the first month that your SSDI benefits start. You do not have the two-year waiting period.

Social Security—not Medicare—makes the determination of whether you qualify for SSDI checks and administers the program that provides the checks. For more information on the Social Security Disability Insurance program, it is recommended that you contact your local Social Security Administration (SSA) office.

Note: Railroad workers should contact the Railroad Retirement Board for information about disability annuity and Medicare eligibility.

Eligibility for ESRD Medicare

You may qualify for ESRD Medicare if you have been diagnosed with kidney failure and you:

• Are getting dialysis treatments or have had a kidney transplant
• And:
  • You are eligible to receive SSDI
  • You are eligible to receive Railroad Retirement benefits
  • Or, you, a spouse, or a parent have paid Medicare taxes for a sufficient amount of time as specified by the Social Security Administration

If you are under 65 and have ESRD, when your Medicare benefits begin depends on your specific circumstances, including when you apply for Medicare, whether you receive dialysis at home or at a facility, and whether you get a kidney transplant. If you are eligible for ESRD Medicare, you can enroll in Parts A and B together at any time. Part A will be retroactive up to 12 months, but it cannot start earlier than the first month you were eligible for ESRD Medicare.

Note: If you are a railroad worker with ESRD, you must contact Social Security—not the Railroad Retirement Board—to find out if you are eligible for Medicare.

Because Social Security and Medicare eligibility rules are complex, it is recommended that you call Social Security at 800-772-1213 to get the most accurate information regarding your particular situation.

Consider Keeping Your Life Insurance When You Retire

Do you need a life insurance policy in retirement?
One school of thought questions this decision. Perhaps your kids have grown, and the need to help protect the household against the loss of an income-earner has passed.

If you are thinking about dropping your coverage for either or both of those reasons, you may want to ask yourself a few additional questions before moving forward.

Remember that several factors will affect the cost and availability of life insurance, including age, health, and the type and amount of insurance purchased. Life insurance policies have expenses, including mortality and other charges. If a policy is surrendered prematurely, the policyholder also may pay surrender charges and have income tax implications. You should consider determining whether you are insurable before implementing a strategy involving life insurance. Any guarantees associated with a policy are dependent on the ability of the issuing insurance company to continue making claim payments.

Does your policy have a cash value?
If you have a whole life policy, it may have built a cash value over time. Whole life insurance is designed to remain in force for your whole life, as long as you remain current with your premiums. Before surrendering a whole-life policy, be certain you understand the policy’s features and limitations.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not a replacement for real-life advice, so you may want to consider asking for guidance from a financial professional before modifying your life insurance strategy. Life insurance is not insured by the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation). It is not insured by any federal government agency, bank, or savings association.

Do you anticipate paying estate taxes?
If the value of your estate exceeds federal or state estate tax thresholds, you may owe estate taxes. Life insurance proceeds may help your heirs manage the tax situation, and could prevent the need to sell other assets. Estate tax laws are constantly changing, so you may want to consider speaking with a legal professional, who can provide information on potential legislative changes.

Are you carrying a mortgage?
If you borrowed to purchase your home or have refinanced and are carrying a mortgage, the proceeds for a life insurance policy may help your heirs manage the mortgage payments.

How SECURE 2.0 Might Change Retirement

The SECURE Act of 2019 represented the biggest update to retirement law in over a decade. Now, Congress is deliberating on what “SECURE 2.0” legislation might entail.

In March, the House passed the Securing a Strong Retirement Act with a bipartisan 414-5 vote. The Senate is still weighing numerous proposals for their version, the Rise & Shine Act.

Proposals under consideration include:

• Raising the Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) age to 73
  (eventually 75)
• Increasing catch-up contributions to $10,000
• Creating Roth versions of SIMPLE and SEP IRAs

Reconciling these bills will take time, but it’s clear that SECURE 2.0 could bring about another raft of significant changes for business owners and
employees. As always, I’m keeping an eye out for what you need to know
and will be in touch as events develop.