Inflation Overreach

What do The Dukes of Hazzard, M*A*S*H, and The Love Boat all have in common? They were top-rated television programs in 1982; the last time inflation was hovering in the 7% range.

When inflation is running hot, you can feel its overreach in almost every corner of the economy. People see it when they buy gas or buy food at the grocery store, but its influence touches mortgage rates, credit card debt, and overall consumer confidence.

Managing inflation is the job of the Federal Reserve, and the Fed’s approach with monetary policy reflects its near single-minded focus on higher prices in 2022. The Fed raised short-term interest rates at its March meeting, and Fed Chair Powell signaled more is needed before the Fed can wrestle control of inflation.

It may be only a matter of time before the Fed’s policies temper inflation. Some see a change in the second half of the year, while others say 2023 is more likely. But in the months ahead, it’s possible inflation reports will bring back memories of Laverne & Shirley and Magnum, P.I.

If you’re feeling an inflation pinch, please reach out. We’d welcome the chance to hear your story. In the meantime, our team of professionals will monitor the situation and keep you updated if we believe any portfolio changes are needed.

What Do Your Taxes Pay For?

Taxes are one of the biggest budget items for most taxpayers, yet many have no idea what they’re getting for their money.

In 2017, as in recent years, Americans spent more on taxes than on groceries, clothing, and shelter combined. In fact, we worked until late April just to earn enough money to pay our taxes. So what do all those weeks of work get us?¹

The accompanying chart breaks down the $4 trillion in federal spending for 2017 into major categories. One of the biggest categories is Social Security, which consumes one-fourth of the budget. Income security, which includes food assistance and unemployment compensation, takes another 13%. Defense and related items take 15% of the budget, and 26% goes to Medicare and health programs.²

Are taxes one of your biggest budget items? Take steps to make sure you’re managing your overall tax bill. Please consult a tax professional for specific information regarding your individual situation.

Pieces of the Federal Pie

More than 60% of 2017 federal spending was used for Social Security, Medicare, defense, and related programs.

Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, January 29, 2019

Medicare General Enrollment Ends On March 31st

The general enrollment period for Medicare goes from January 1st to March 31st. If you haven’t decided yet, your time is running out for the year.

It may not be immediately clear what this specific enrollment period is for, as several enrollment periods are related to Medicare. In this case, the enrollment window is for those who haven’t signed up for Medicare Part B but don’t have access to Part B’s special enrollment period.

You can also use this period to enroll in Medicare Part A if you have to pay a premium but did not sign up for Part A when you were first eligible.

Enrolling can be done online at Medicare.gov. From there, you can get started or make contact with someone who can answer questions and help further.

Medicare plays a critical role in your healthcare coverage in retirement. If you have questions after you have signed up, please reach out. We have a variety of resources that may provide you with insight.

What If You Get Audited?

“Audit” is a word that can strike fear into the hearts of taxpayers.

However, the chances of an Internal Revenue Service audit aren’t that high. Between 2010 and 2018, the IRS only audited 0.6% of all individual tax returns.¹

And being audited does not necessarily imply that the IRS suspects wrongdoing. The IRS says an audit is just a formal review of a tax return to ensure information is being reported according to current tax law and to verify that the information itself is accurate.

The IRS selects returns for audit using three main methods.²

• Random Selection. Some returns are chosen at random based on the results of a statistical formula.
• Information Matching. The IRS compares reports from payers — W2 forms from employers, 1099 forms from banks and brokerages, and others — to the returns filed by taxpayers. Those that don’t match may be examined further.
• Related Examinations. Some returns are selected for an audit because they involve issues or transactions with other taxpayers whose returns have been selected for examination.

There are a number of sound tax practices that may reduce the chances of an audit.

• Provide Complete Information. Among the most commonly overlooked information is missing Social Security numbers — including those for any dependent children and ex-spouses.
• Avoid Math Errors. When the IRS receives a return that contains math errors, it assesses the error and sends a notice without following its normal deficiency procedures.
• Match Your Statements. The numbers on any W-2 and 1099 forms must match the returns to which they are tied. Those that don’t match may be flagged for an audit.
• Don’t Repeat Mistakes. The IRS remembers those returns it has audited. It may check to make sure past errors aren’t repeated.
• Keep Complete Records. This won’t reduce the chance of an audit, but it potentially may make it much easier to comply with IRS requests for documentation.

Remember, the information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation.

Split Decision: Who Joins the Dow 30

You may have heard that both Amazon and Alphabet recently announced stock splits. But what you may have missed is the subplot to the unfolding story.

The decision to split makes it likely that one of them will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) the next time there’s a change.

The DJIA is a price-weighted index, meaning its value is derived from the price per share for each stock divided by 30. Some believe that Google and Amazon were too high priced to get selected. By splitting, they improve their chances.

Amazon says it plans to split 20-for-1 in early June. Were the stock to close at $2,500 on the day of the split, each share would go to $125 and each existing holder would get 19 additional shares for every one they own.

Alphabet says it plans to split 20-for-1 in mid-July. Shareholders will get the same treatment.

A company’s board of directors makes stock-split decisions. Among other reasons, the board is looking to make the shares more affordable to employees and individual investors.

Stock splits can be confusing, so please reach out if you want more detailed information. And remember, Amazon and Alphabet are highlighted because they are splitting their shares. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell the securities.

Social Security: Maximizing Benefits

Most understand that waiting to claim Social Security benefits can result in higher monthly payments. However, many don’t know that there are other ways to maximize their benefits, some of which depend on their marital status.

Understanding the strategies for maximizing your Social Security retirement income benefits should be prefaced with a review of the three basic forms of retirement benefits:

1. The Worker Benefit: This is the benefit you receive based on your own personal earnings history, and for which you become eligible after 40 quarters of work.
2. The Spousal Benefit: This is the benefit paid to your spouse. For non-working spouses, this is 50% of the working spouse’s benefit. For working spouses, it is the greater of the benefit earned from his or her earnings or 50% of the worker’s benefit.
3. The Survivor Benefit: This is the benefit paid to the surviving spouse, which is paid at a rate equal to the greater of his or her own current benefit, or, depending on the widow or widower’s age, up to 100 % of the deceased spouse’s current benefit.¹

The first and most obvious strategy for maximizing your Social Security benefit is to simply wait to reach age 70 before beginning to take benefits. By waiting until age 70 to receive benefits, your monthly payments may increase by 24%, not including any cost of living increases that may be added to this amount.²

Benefit Maximization Strategies for Widows and Widowers

Remember, there is no spousal benefit for a widow/widower, but he or she does qualify for a survivor benefit that is equal to 100% of the deceased spouse’s benefit (versus the 50% spousal benefit if the working spouse is still alive). This survivor benefit is available at age 60 or even earlier, depending on the widow/widower’s disability status and whether or not they are caring for a child.³

If you are widowed and also have worked for 40 quarters, you will have a worker benefit and a survivor benefit. This presents you with several choices. One choice is to file for the benefit that provides you the greatest monthly benefit amount.

Another choice may be to start your worker benefit at age 62 and then switch to the survivor benefit once you reach full retirement age. This option is advantageous in instances where the widowed spouse did not accumulate the same level of benefits as the deceased spouse. Choosing this option allows the surviving spouse to take the higher survivor benefit amount. Because there are no delayed retirement credits earned on survivor benefits, there is no advantage to waiting past full retirement age to apply for survivor benefits.⁴

A final choice is to consider starting the survivor benefit at age 60 and then switching to your own worker benefit at age 70. This strategy allows you to begin receiving income based on the survivor benefit as early as possible and provides you time to build up the maximum worker benefit.

As you can see, there are ways you can potentially raise your Social Security benefits. These strategies can help you maximize your benefits beyond what is available to those who simply delay retirement to age 70.

The Fed Makes Its Move

The Federal Reserve recently announced that for the first time in three years, it would increase short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. In addition, the Fed has stated that it would like to see short-term interest rates near 2% by the year’s end, which would mean a hike at each of the remaining central bank meetings this year.¹

Many investors have been cheered by the Fed’s aggressive move to combat inflation, but even Fed officials acknowledge that higher rates could slow economic growth this year. This cautious stance is no doubt due to the upward pressure on inflation the ongoing invasion of Ukraine has caused.

There’s no surefire way to anticipate what the future will bring, but these recent moves by the Fed indicate that interest rates are heading higher. Let us know if you have any questions or concerns about these announced interest rate hikes. We’re always here to help.

Social Security: The Elephant in the Room

For most Americans, Social Security has represented nothing more than some unavoidable payroll deduction with the positively cryptic initials of “FICA” and “OASDI” (Federal Insurance Contributions Act and Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance). It hinted at a future that seemed both intangible and far away.

Yet, many Americans now sit on the cusp of drawing on the promise that was made with those payments.

As the growing wave of citizens approach retirement, questions and concerns abound. Is Social Security financially healthy? How much will my income benefit be? How do I maximize my benefits for my spouse and myself? When should I begin taking Social Security?

Questions & Elephants

Answering these questions may help you derive the most from your Social Security benefit and potentially enhance your financial security in retirement. Before you can answer these questions, you have to acknowledge the elephant in the room.

The Social Security system has undergone periodic scares over the years that have inevitably led many people to wonder if Social Security will remain financially sound enough to pay the benefits they are owed.

Reasonable Concern

Social Security was created in 1935 during Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first term. It was designed to provide income to older Americans who had little to no means of support. The country was mired in an economic downturn and the need for such support was acute.¹

Since its creation, there have been three basic developments that have led to the financial challenges Social Security faces today.

1. The number of workers paying into the system (which supports current benefit payments) has fallen from just over 8 workers for every retiree in 1955 to 3.3 in 2005. That ratio is expected to fall to 2.2 to 1 by 2037.^2,3
2. A program that began as a dedicated retirement benefit later morphed into income support for disabled workers and surviving family members. These added obligations were not always matched with the necessary payroll deduction levels to financially support these additional objectives.
3. Retirees are living longer. As might be expected, the march of medical technology and our understanding of healthy behaviors have led to a longer retirement span, potentially placing a greater strain on resources.

Beginning in 2010, tax and other non-interest income no longer fully covered the program’s cost. According to the Social Security Trustees 2020 annual report, this pattern is expected to continue for the next 75 years; the report projects that the trust fund may be exhausted by 2035, absent any changes.⁴

Social Security’s financial crisis is real, but the prospect of its failure seems remote. There are a number of ways to stabilize the Social Security system, including, but not limited to:

• Increase Payroll Taxes: An increase in payroll taxes, depending on the size, could add years of life to the trust fund.
• Raise the Retirement Age: This has already been done in past reforms and would save money by paying benefits to future recipients at a later age.
• Tax Benefits of Higher Earners: By taxing Social Security income for retirees in higher tax brackets, the tax revenue could be used to lengthen the life of the trust fund.
• Modify Inflation Adjustments: Rather than raise benefits in line with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), policymakers might elect to tie future benefit increases to the “chained CPI,” which assumes that individuals move to cheaper alternatives in the face of rising costs. Using the “chained CPI” may make cost of living adjustments less expensive.

Reform is expected to be difficult since it may involve tough choices—something from which many policymakers often retreat. However, history has shown that political leaders tend to act when the consequences of inaction exceed those taking action.

The Utility of Sector Investing

There is a growing popularity among individuals to broaden their investment strategy beyond conventional allocations and investment styles. Some see sector investing as a way to seek new opportunities for enhanced portfolio performance.¹

Because of its narrow focus, a sector investing strategy tends to be more volatile than an investment strategy that is diversified across many sectors and companies. Sector investing also is subject to the additional risks that are associated with each particular industry. Sector investing can be adversely affected by political, regulatory, market, or economic developments.

Sectors are made up of companies grouped by similar businesses that range from natural resources to financial services and from technology to consumer staples. In any given year, one sector may outperform another. For example, in 2020, materials rose 17.9%, while utilities fell -4.1%.²

Successful sector investing depends on an individual’s ability to consistently and accurately determine when to rotate in and out of the various sectors, which may be a challenge for most investors.

Investors are further cautioned that some sector mutual funds are capitalization weighted, meaning that they can be very concentrated in a few stocks, so you need to do your homework.³

Remember that mutual funds are sold by prospectus. Please consider the charges, risks, expenses, and investment objectives carefully before investing. A prospectus containing this and other information about the investment company can be obtained from your financial professional. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.

Sector Investing Strategies

There are a number of ways to implement sector investing, depending upon your objective.

Portfolio Carve-Out: This approach dedicates a portion of your portfolio to seek opportunities in a specific sector. For example, if you think a rebounding economy may increase consumer spending, potentially a Consumer Discretionary sector would be a consideration.

Risk Management: Because the correlations between different sectors can be lower than those between general categories (e.g., value vs. growth or large vs. small cap), investors may be able to build a portfolio of sectors that potentially may reduce overall investment risk.

Portfolio Completion: This strategy targets sectors that may be underrepresented in a current portfolio. For instance, if precious metals or real estate exposure is lacking, you can use sector investment to gain that exposure.

Successful sector investing may be a challenge for most investors, but it could present an opportunity for those who do their homework.

^{Because of its narrow focus, a sector investing strategy tends to be more volatile than an investment strategy that is diversified across many sectors and companies. Sector investing also is subject to the additional risks that are associated with each particular industry. Sector investing can be adversely affected by political, regulatory, market, or economic developments.}

And the Executor Is

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Warren Burger is famous for more than just his time on the bench. When he died in 1995, he left a 176-word will that gave no specific power to his executors.¹ As a result, he reportedly cost his estate tens of thousands of dollars in attorney’s fees.

Judge Burger’s case shows that even law-savvy individuals can make mistakes when it comes to writing their own legal documents. But giving executors the proper power is only one piece of the puzzle. How do you choose an executor? Can anyone do it? What makes an individual a good choice?

Many people choose a spouse, sibling, child, or close friend as executor. In most cases, the job is fairly straightforward. Still, you might give special consideration to someone who is well organized and capable of handling financial matters. Someone who is respected by your heirs and a good communicator also may help make the process run smoothly.

Above all, an executor should be someone trustworthy, since this person will have legal responsibility to manage your money, pay your debts (including taxes), and distribute your assets to your beneficiaries as stated in your will.

If your estate is large or you anticipate a significant amount of court time for your executor, you might think of naming a bank, lawyer, or financial professional. These individuals will typically charge a fee, which would be paid by the estate. In some families, singling out one child or sibling as executor could be construed as favoritism, so naming an outside party may be a good alternative.

Whenever possible, choose an executor who lives near you. Court appearances, property issues, even checking mail can be simplified by proximity. Also, some states place additional restrictions on executors who live out of state, so check the laws where you live.

Whomever you choose, discuss your decision with that person. Make sure the individual understands and accepts the obligation – and knows where you keep important records. Because the person may pre-decease you – or have a change of heart about executing your wishes – it’s always a good idea to name one or two alternative executors.

The period following the death of a loved one is a stressful time, and can be confusing for family members. Choosing the right executor can help ensure that the distribution of your assets may be done efficiently and with as little upheaval as possible.