The Fed Acknowledges Inflation

At its June meeting, the Federal Reserve confirmed what many of us have suspected for some time: prices are rising. In fact, prices are climbing faster than many expected. In response, the Fed raised its inflation expectation to 3.4%, up from its March projection of 2.4%, effectively raising its inflation expectation by 42%.¹

The Fed’s course correction on inflation expectations and planned interest rate hikes unsettled the financial markets, with further volatility felt after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the first interest rate hike could be as soon as 2022.²

The Fed also indicated that two interest rate hikes in 2023 were likely, despite signals last march that rates would remain unchanged until 2024.³

So, what’s an investor to do? It’s important to remember that inflation is just one of the factors considered when creating a portfolio. If inflation trends higher than expected for some time, adjustments may need to occur. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said at the June meeting that he believes that inflation will be transitory. But as evidenced by the recent changes, the Fed remains ready to update its outlook as economic data continues to accumulate.

If you’re concerned about inflation, please reach out. As the economy continues to strengthen, economic trends and themes are evolving quickly. We’d welcome the chance to hear your thoughts.

Are you ready for the Second Act of the Secure Act

Recently, you may have seen headlines regarding the Securing a Strong Retirement Act, also referred to as the second version of the SECURE Act, or SECURE Act 2.0.

As the bill moves from the House of Representatives to the Senate, many hopeful investors are anticipating further retirement support as the majority of the bill stems from the original SECURE Act of 2019. However, it’s worth noting that the bill may change drastically before being signed into law. With that in mind, here are some potential benefits of the Securing a Strong Retirement Act.

• Required Minimum Distributions (RMD): For those who contribute to a 401(k) or IRA, the Securing a Strong Retirement Act may allow you to wait until age 74 to start taking RMDs from your retirement accounts.¹
• Catch-up Contributions: Those who own an IRA and are over age 60 may be allowed to contribute an additional $10,000 per year to their retirement accounts.¹
• Student Loans: Employers may be allowed to match retirement contributions for employees who are paying off student loans.¹

There’s little doubt the bill will benefit many retirees or those approaching retirement; the only question that remains is “how.” If you have any questions about how this new legislation may impact your retirement strategy, or you just want to chat, give me a call anytime. We’re always here to help.

A COLA with your Social Security

If there is a “silver lining” to all the inflation talk, it may be that Social Security benefits are expected to see a larger-than-normal increase in 2022.

Preliminary estimates call for a 4.7% cost-of-living increase (COLA) in Social Security benefits next year, which would be the highest since 2009. Benefits rose 1.3% in 2021.¹

The Social Security Administration makes its official announcement in January 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics bases its annual adjustment on the Bureau of Labor Statistics data in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as the CPI-W.²

A lot can change between now and January 2022, but remember that data from the third quarter of 2021 will be the basis for the COLA for next year.

In my experience, Social Security is one of the most misunderstood sources of retirement income. For example, only 33% of people in 2021 expected Social Security to be a major income source during retirement.

In reality, it was a major source for 62% of retirees.³ Retirement may hold many surprises. But your sources of retirement income shouldn’t be one of them. It’s critical to have a strategy that keeps your expectations in line with reality. We’d welcome the chance to hear what you think about Social Security.

Rebalancing your portfolio

Everyone loves a winner. If an investment is successful, most people naturally want to stick with it. But is that the best approach?

It may sound counterintuitive, but it may be possible to have too much of a good thing. Over
time, the performance of different investments can shift a portfolio’s intent – and its risk profile.
It’s a phenomenon sometimes referred to as “risk creep,” and it happens when a portfolio has
its risk profile shift over time.

When deciding how to allocate investments, many start by taking into account their time horizon, risk tolerance, and specific goals. Next, individual investments are selected that pursue the overall objective. If all the investments selected had the same return, that balance – that allocation – would remain steady for a period of time. But if the investments have varying returns, over time, the portfolio may bear little resemblance to its original allocation.

How Rebalancing Works

Rebalancing is the process of restoring a portfolio to its original risk profile.¹

There are two ways to rebalance a portfolio. The first is to use new money.

When adding money to a portfolio, allocate these new funds to those assets or asset classes that have fallen. For example, if bonds have fallen from 40% of a portfolio to 30%, consider purchasing enough bonds to return them to their original 40% allocation. Diversification is an investment principle designed to manage risk. However, diversification does not guarantee against a loss.

The second way of rebalancing is to sell enough of the “winners” to buy more underperforming assets. Ironically, this type of rebalancing actually forces you to buy low and sell high.

Periodically rebalancing your portfolio to match your desired risk tolerance is a sound practice
regardless of the market conditions. One approach is to set a specific time each year to
schedule an appointment to review your portfolio and determine if adjustments are appropriate.

Shifting Allocation

Over time, market conditions can change the risk profile of an investment portfolio. For
example, imagine that on January 1, 2010, an investor created a portfolio containing a mix of
50% bonds and 50% stocks. By January 1, 2020, if the portfolio were left untouched, the mix
would have changed to 33% bonds and 67% stocks.²

Inflation can be a scary word.

Inflation can be a scary word for people who are retired. It’s code for “prices are going up, but my income may stay the same.”

The most recent reading on consumer prices put inflation back into the conversation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8% in April 2021 and jumped by a greater-than-expected 4.2% year-over-year.¹

April’s increase was led by a 10% increase in used cars, with additional pockets of increases, notably in transportation services and commodities. Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, was up a more modest 3.0% from April 2020.^2,3

While there is good reason to be concerned about inflation, there also are compelling reasons to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says today’s inflation will be transitory and attributed to the post-pandemic economic expansion. But others are not so certain. Warren Buffett has said price increases are more structural, meaning they are becoming part of the prices we pay every day.^4,5

Inflation is just one factor considered when creating a portfolio. If inflation starts to trend higher than expected for a period of time, adjustments can be made. For example, if the Fed chooses to raise interest rates to help manage inflation, it may be appropriate to review a portfolio’s bond holdings. Longer-term bonds can be more sensitive to interest rate changes.

We are keeping an eye on inflation and understand the concerns of our retired, or soon to be retired, clients. We work with professionals who monitor the economy and who can help interpret the recent government reports. But if inflation is starting to worry you, please reach out. We’d welcome the chance to hear your thoughts.

Cyberattack: CPI Hit the Wallet

A cyberattack shut down a major gas and energy pipeline supplying the East Coast of the United States for several days. The actual pipelines themselves are still functional and have since started running again, but it’s led to long lines and closed gas stations in many regions.^1,2

While this situation is alarming and has a number of short-term consequences, it’s important to remember that the attack has mainly affected the computer systems used to transport the fuel. The flow of gasoline will soon return to its normal rate.¹

Adding to the financial woes is the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), a high jump of 4.2%. (Economists were looking for 3.6%.) Fed officials are saying that this represents a temporary rise and indicate that these may be influenced by the overall economic recovery, post-pandemic.³

Whatever lies ahead, it’s important to remember that, while these might be difficult matters for the household, they do not necessarily reflect the economy as a whole. Your economic strategy factors information like rising prices, so it’s important not to let certain events distract you from the bigger picture. As always, we at AQuest are happy to have a conversation with you about any concerns you may have.

Will your retirement dreams match your reality?

That’s perhaps the most critical question to ask people who are currently retired. Was your retirement what you expected, or was it something else?

For more than 30 years, the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) has conducted the Retirement Confidence Survey, which gauges the views and attitudes of working-age and retired Americans regarding retirement and their preparations for retirement.¹

Part of the survey takes a deep dive into workers’ expectations for sources of income in retirement versus retirees’ actual income sources.

Here’s a couple of highlights of the 2021 survey.

Only 33% of workers expect Social Security to be a significant source of retirement income. In reality, 62% of retirees say it’s a major source.

Further, more than 50% of workers believe that workplace retirement savings plans will be a significant source of retirement income. But the 2021 survey found that workplace plans are a major source for only 20% of retirees.

Surprised? We’re not. These numbers are consistent year after year. Here’s another nugget to consider: 26% of workers plan to work for pay in retirement. In reality, only 7% of retirees do.

For most, retirement is the “next chapter” in life. It’s critical that your finances support your retirement vision, so there are no surprises when it’s your turn.

Let us know if there’s a change in your retirement dream. We’d welcome the chance to hear what prompted the difference, and we’ll be sure to make any needed adjustments in your financial strategy.

Helpful Retirement Strategies for Women

Preparing for retirement can look a little different for women than it does for men. Although stereotypes are changing, women are still more likely to serve as caretakers than men are, meaning they accumulate less income and benefits due to their time absent from the workforce. Research shows that 39% of women took a significant amount of time off work to care for loved ones – compared to 24% of men.¹ Women who are working also tend to put less money aside for retirement, saving just 7% of their paychecks on average, while men save closer to 10%.²

These numbers may seem overwhelming, but you don’t have to be a statistic. With a little foresight, you can start taking steps now, which may help you in the long run. Here are three steps to consider that may put you ahead of the curve.

1. Talk about money. Nowadays, discussing money is less taboo than it’s been in the past, and it’s crucial to taking control of your financial future. If you’re single, consider writing down your retirement goals and keep them readily accessible. If you have a partner, make sure you are both on the same page regarding your retirement goals.^3,4 The more comfortably you can talk about your future, the more confident you may be to make important decisions when they come up.

2. Be proactive about your retirement. Do you have clear, defined goals for what you want your retirement to look like? And do you know where your retirement accounts stand today? Being proactive with your retirement accounts allows you to create a goal-oriented roadmap. It may also help you adapt when necessary and continue your journey regardless of things like relationship status or market fluctuations.²

3. Make room for your future in your budget. Adjust your budget to allow for retirement savings, just as you would for a new home or your dream vacation. Like any of your other financial goals, you may find it beneficial to review your retirement goals on a regular basis to make sure you’re on track.³

Retirement may look a little different for women, but with the right strategies – and support – you’ll be able to live the retirement you’ve always dreamed of.

The Call for a Minimum Global Corporate Tax

In a speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has called for a minimum corporate income tax that would be shared by countries all over the world.¹

The decrease of corporate tax rates around the world has led to what Yellen has described as a “30-year race to the bottom,” which has led to tax systems that have difficulty raising sufficient revenue. While low corporate tax rates might seem good for businesses, the other side of the coin is that countries with insufficient revenue are unable to make investments in important public needs. Some of those needs also serve the corporations, such as highways, rail, and ports needed to transport goods, to name but one example.¹

Yellen says she intends to work with the White House and a group of 20 nations to set a minimum that helps the advanced economies meet their various needs.¹

While the idea of a global minimum might cause alarm for some, it’s a complicated issue, with a variety of potential pros and cons to consider. You might have questions or concerns, especially if you are a business owner. I’d be happy to discuss that with you and help you understand this issue as it unfolds.

IRA and HSA deadline postponed by the IRS

Previously, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced that the federal income tax filing due date for individuals for the 2020 tax year had been automatically extended from April 15, 2021, to May 17, 2021.¹

More time for all
However, the IRS has also settled on May 17, 2021 as the deadline for contributions to individual retirement arrangements (IRAs and Roth IRAs), health savings accounts (HSAs), and Coverdell education savings accounts (Coverdell ESAs)²

No additional tax until May 17, 2021
This also automatically postpones to May 17, 2021, the deadline for reporting and payment of the 10% additional tax on amounts includible in gross income from 2020, distributions from IRAs, or workplace-based retirement plans.³

What about estimated tax payments?
Keep in mind that this does not alter the April 15, 2021, deadline for estimated tax payments; these payments are still due on April 15. Taxes must be paid as taxpayers earn or receive income during the year, either through withholding or estimated tax payments.⁴